Another upcoming factor not yet in the calculations is the U.S. elections. A Trump administration that rolls back the climate policies in the Inflation Reduction Act, and carries out the conservative blueprint Project 2025, would add 0.04 degree Celsius (0.07 Fahrenheit) to warming projections, Gonzales-Zuniga said. That’s not much, but it could be more if other nations use it as an excuse to do less, she said.

“For the U.S. it is going backwards,” said Hare. At least China has more of an optimistic future with a potential giant plunge in future emissions, he said.

“We should already be seeing (global) emissions going down” and they are not, Hare said. “The political system, politicians are not reacting. And I think that’s something that people everywhere should be worried about.”

Experts say $1 trillion is needed in climate cash for developing nations

The major battle in Baku is over how much rich nations will pay for developing countries to decarbonize their energy systems, cope with future harms of climate change and pay for damage from warming’s extreme weather.

A special independent group of experts commissioned by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued its own estimate of costs and finances on Thursday, calling for a tripling of the old commitment.

“Advanced economies need to demonstrate a credible commitment” to helping poor nations, the report said.

The independent experts’ report said about $1 trillion a year is needed by developing nations from all outside sources, not just government grants. A coalition of developing nations at the Baku talks are asking for $1.3 trillion in annual climate finance.

Negotiators are still working out how much money will be on the table for the final deal, but indications late Wednesday suggested many options were still on the table.

“Developing country needs are in the trillions and its clear such an amount can’t be provided from public funding, rather private investment has to be brought to the table,” said German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan. “All financial players need to do their part.”

But Mariana Paoli of Christian Aid said relying on the private sector means climate cash will not be “needs based, it will be profit-driven. We cannot accept that.” Paoli said that crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and bank bailouts proves there isn’t a lack of public funds.

COP29’s lead negotiator, Yalchin Rafiyev, called getting a deal on money for developing nations “our top priority.”

Getting climate cash is personal for many activists from the countries experiencing the worst impacts of climate change, like Sandra Leticia Guzman Luna, who is from Mexico and the director of the climate finance group for Latin America and the Caribbean. “We are observing the climate impacts causing a lot of costs, not only economic costs but also human losses,” she said.

Bianca Castro, a climate activist from Portugal, said: “I’m from one of the countries that needs to pay up and is historically responsible. ... Year after year, we come to COP and we are heartbroken with what doesn’t happen but we know needs to happen.”

Fraught politics isolates some nations

Argentina withdrew from the climate talks on Wednesday on the orders of its president, climate skeptic Javier Milei. The Argentine government did not respond to requests from The Associated Press for comment.

Climate activists called the decision regrettable.

“All it does is remove the country from critical conversations going on climate finance,” said Anabella Rosemberg, an Argentina native who works as a senior adviser at Climate Action Network International. “It’s difficult to understand how a climate-vulnerable country like Argentina would cut itself from critical support.”

At the same time, France’s environment minister, who was set to lead the delegation, pulled out of the talks after Azerbaijan president Ilham Aliyev called out France and the Netherlands for their colonial histories in a speech on Wednesday.

Agnès Pannier-Runacher called Aliyev’s remarks on France and Europe “unacceptable.” Speaking at the French Senate on Wednesday, Pannier-Runacher criticized Azerbaijan’s leader for using the fight against climate change “for a shameful personal agenda.”

“The direct attacks on our country, its institutions and its territories are unjustifiable,” she said, adding it was “ironic that Azerbaijan, a repressive regime, gives human rights lessons.”

COP29 negotiator Rafiyev declined to comment Thursday on Pannier-Runacher’s decision, but said “Azerbaijan has made sure we have inclusive process.”

“We have opened our door for everyone to come for constructive, critical discussions,” he said.