Skyrocketing inflation in Lebanon, compounded by the country’s chronic electricity crisis and rising fuel prices, is putting further pressure on household budgets and pushing more families towards poverty, raising questions over whether growing economic hardship could trigger another nationwide uprising.

According to the latest figures from the government’s Central Administration of Statistics, consumer prices rose by around 77.3% between August 2023 and July 2026. The latest official figures show that annual inflation remained in double digits in 2026, with consumer prices rising 16.66% year-on-year in August.

Rising prices are no longer simply a cost-of-living issue but a measure of the erosion of Lebanese households' purchasing power, as the economy faces another contraction in 2026. The International Monetary Fund said after a visit to Lebanon this month that economic activity was expected to contract significantly this year, while inflation remained in double digits.

Lebanon’s economy collapsed in 2019 after decades of mismanagement and systemic corruption. The banking sector subsequently collapsed, locking people out of much of their savings, while the Lebanese pound lost more than 90% of its value. The World Bank has described the crisis as one of the worst globally since the mid-19th century.

The latest economic shock comes amid ongoing Israeli occupation and attacks on the south, with the World Bank saying Lebanon’s economy is projected to contract by 6.4% in 2026 after renewed Israel-Hezbollah fighting derailed a fragile recovery. It also expects inflation to rise to 17.5% this year, driven in part by supply disruptions, higher shipping costs and rising oil prices.

Rising prices, rising poverty

Financial expert Mounir Younes said inflation in Lebanon was currently running at around 16-17%, which he described as among the highest rates in the world.

He attributed the increase not only to rising fuel prices but also to existing monopolies in the market and the Economy Ministry’s inability to properly monitor prices, tackle fraud and curb what he described as exploitation by some traders and business owners.

The impact is particularly acute because Lebanon lacks an adequate public transport network, leaving many people dependent on private cars and therefore exposed to rising petrol costs. A revamped public bus system was officially launched in August 2024, but it has yet to provide a comprehensive alternative to private transport.

"Lebanon does not have a proper public transport network, so people rely on cars. This means consuming gasoline, and gasoline prices have risen dramatically," Younes told The New Arab.

"This also puts pressure on household budgets and leaves broad sections of the population vulnerable to falling into poverty."

A basket of goods and services that cost around $100 three years ago would now cost roughly $177.30, based on the 77.3% increase in consumer prices. For someone whose income has remained at $100, this represents a 43.6% loss in purchasing power, as the same amount can now buy only what $56.40 could have purchased three years ago.

Younes said there was no doubt that rising prices and fuel costs had contributed to worsening poverty in Lebanon.

"The initial indicators show that more than 40% of residents have fallen into poverty or are on the verge of poverty," he said, referring to poverty indicators he had cited.

At the same time, Younes said the continued activity visible in parts of the economy should not be mistaken for broad-based prosperity.

"Someone might tell you that there is economic activity in the country — commercial activity, tourism, consumer spending, restaurants and so on," he said.

"But this activity is based on roughly 20% of the population, those who have purchasing power, as well as people who receive assistance from relatives abroad."

Many Lebanese households have long relied heavily on remittances from relatives overseas, with these transfers helping to keep consumer markets moving to some extent.

Outcry over generator costs

The prolonged electricity crisis has added another layer of pressure on households. The state-run Électricité du Liban (EDL) remains unable to provide round-the-clock power, leaving residents dependent on private generators, particularly in densely populated urban areas where solar power is not an option for everyone.

Generator operators have faced public criticism over high bills, with some residents reporting monthly charges running into hundreds of dollars. Operators, many of whom control supply in particular neighbourhoods and are linked to political parties, have attributed rising costs to higher fuel prices.

"EDL is no longer able to provide electricity for more than three or four hours a day. The rest comes from private generators, whose prices are around 50, 60 or 70 cents per kilowatt-hour — roughly double the EDL tariff," Younes said.

"This increases costs for people by no less than $1 billion a year, at a time when the country is still in crisis and incomes remain depressed."

Authorities have confiscated generators and issued fines to operators accused of charging above rates set by the Energy Ministry, but the measures have done little to resolve the underlying electricity crisis.

Could Lebanon see another 2019 uprising?

The combination of rising living costs, falling purchasing power and stagnant public-sector wages has fuelled demands for higher pay and raised questions over whether Lebanon could see a repeat of the mass protests that swept the country in 2019.

Public-sector employees and retirees are among those particularly affected. More than 300,000 people fall into these groups, according to Younes, who said rising petrol prices had placed additional pressure on them.

"Their salaries currently amount to only around 30% of what they were before the crisis. They are demanding salary increases, while the government obviously cannot meet all of their demands because the state’s public budget still faces problems in increasing revenues," he said.

Transport strikes are planned for the end of the month, while the Public Sector Employees' Association has announced a strike for Friday. Retired Lebanese army personnel have already protested against the cabinet's 2027 draft budget, saying it fails to adequately address their pensions.

But Younes said he did not expect the current pressures to produce a repeat of the 2019 protests, when hundreds of thousands of people from across Lebanon’s political and sectarian spectrum took to the streets.

"There will certainly be strikes, but social upheaval in Lebanon is unlike any kind of upheaval elsewhere because the country is divided. Even the trade unions are divided along sectarian lines and are influenced by sectarian political leadership," he said.

"So, if by social upheaval you mean the overthrow of the government, it certainly will not succeed for political and sectarian reasons."

Lebanon’s political and economic crisis has also been compounded by the conflict with Israel and Hezbollah, which has caused extensive damage and displacement and further strained public finances. The World Bank estimates that renewed conflict has sharply disrupted the fragile economic recovery recorded in 2025.

Critics of Hezbollah in Lebanon fear the group could seek to capitalise on any renewed street protests to pressure Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government, which includes Hezbollah ministers. The group has criticised Salam over a June agreement with Israel and called on Beirut to withdraw from negotiations with Tel Aviv.