The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar last week briefly sparked speculation that negotiations to end the war in Gaza might gain traction. Yet, the Israeli government, Hamas, and its ally Hezbollah – both militant groups backed by Iran – have all signaled that they will not back down. The recent escalation of attacks suggests that the violence may be intensifying, rather than subsiding.

Sinwar, the mastermind behind Hamas’ deadly October 7, 2023 attack on Israel that ignited the war in Gaza, was killed last Wednesday in a gunfight with Israeli forces after a yearlong manhunt. His demise confirmed a day later, leaves a huge leadership void in Hamas and raises questions about who might step into his role and what this could mean for the prospects of a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages held there.

While Sinwar’s death represents a triumph for Israel, it also shifts the dynamics of the conflict. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must now chart a course forward – not only in Gaza but also in Lebanon and in its confrontation with Iran.

Israel appears determined to inflict maximum damage on Hamas and Hezbollah, taking advantage of the geopolitical moment before a new US president assumes office. Netanyahu, nevertheless, faces growing pressure to bring an end to the fighting.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken pressed Netanyahu during talks on Tuesday to leverage Sinwar’s killing as an opportunity to secure the release of Israeli hostages and bring an end to the war in Gaza.

This marked Blinken’s 11th visit to the Middle East since the outbreak of the Gaza conflict, and with a US presidential election just under two weeks away, his efforts may be the final attempt at mediation before potential changes in US foreign policy.

Blinken was also looking for ways to defuse an escalating spillover conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel’s next steps

Both US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris praised Sinwar’s death, declaring that the world is safer without him. Biden described the militant leader as “an insurmountable obstacle” to ceasefire negotiations. However, many analysts and officials contend that Netanyahu has been equally obstructive to reaching an agreement.

Western powers view Sinwar’s assassination as a potential turning point, giving Netanyahu’s far-right government the political cover to claim progress in Gaza. Despite this, Israel remains resolute in its goal: the complete destruction of Hamas as both a military force and a governing entity in Gaza.

Hamas, in turn, has refused to free the hostages without a commitment from Israel to end the war and withdraw from the Strip.

Hamas is unlikely to be brought to its knees following the killing of its leader. The group operates as a decentralized organization and has the ability to replace leaders quickly.

In fact, some argue that Sinwar’s death could strengthen the resolve of Hamas fighters and increase their recruitment efforts, leading to an even more aggressive resistance.

A video capturing some of his last moments, showing him masked and injured in a bombed-out apartment as he attempted to throw a stick at a drone recording him, evoked a sense of pride among many Palestinians.

Netanyahu is expected to frame the assassination as “progress” in dismantling Hamas, justifying further military operations in Gaza. Israel may feel emboldened to push harder to break Hamas’ stronghold, rather than considering diplomatic alternatives, Arman Mahmoudian, a research fellow at the Global and National Security Institute and lecturer at the University of South Florida, told Al Arabiya English.

“The elimination of Hamas’ Sinwar and much of its high command, combined with the substantial military damage the Israelis have inflicted, has given them momentum to deal an irreversible blow to the armed group,” he said. “This is why they are likely to push forward with their campaign.”

War of attrition

Sinwar’s death might close one chapter, but it won’t resolve Israel’s broader conflicts.

As Israel prepares for a counterstrike following Iran’s October 1 missile attack and ramps up its campaign against Hezbollah, all parties involved – Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran – seem to find the current level of military pressure bearable and feel they can benefit from prolonging the fight. Each side thinks it can endure the conflict long enough to potentially gain from its continuation, making it a test of resilience.

“Iran is relying heavily on attrition,” Riad Kahwaji, military expert and chief executive of the INEGMA Middle East think tank that focuses on security and defense issues, told Al Arabiya English.

“Since October 7, 2023, Iran’s objective has been to stretch Israeli resources thin. The simultaneous opening of various fronts, whether in Lebanon, Yemen or Iraq, under the guise of ‘unification of the arenas,’ aims to wear Israel down and force a ceasefire in Gaza.”

According to Kahwaji, Iran and its allies see Israel as internally vulnerable, with its economy under strain from the ongoing war.

“Despite the severe damage inflicted on Hezbollah, Lebanon and Gaza, Iran remains undeterred. It is guiding this proxy conflict through Hezbollah. From Tehran’s perspective, Lebanon is simply another battleground, not an area of its own strategic loss. After all, Hezbollah is not a state but a militia fighting on behalf of Iran.”

This is not the case for Hamas, which views the situation through the lens of a holy war, where sacrifice is seen as a duty, not as a sign of attrition.

“This is why Iran remains largely insulated from the consequences of this conflict – Israel is the one suffering from the war of attrition, while Iran is untouched,” Kahwaji added.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah still believes it holds leverage due to its ongoing rocket fire and its success in preventing Israeli forces from advancing further into the country.

In late September, Israel redirected its military focus toward Lebanon, vowing to secure its northern border under fire from Hezbollah, which had opened a “support front” for the Palestinians starting October 8, 2023.

Israel ramped up its air strikes on Hezbollah strongholds around the country late last month and sent in ground troops, in a war that has killed at least 1,552 people since September 23, according to an AFP tally of Lebanese health ministry figures.

Moving forward

The possibility of a political solution in the Middle East seems as distant as ever. Although Western and Arab nations, including the United States, are pushing for de-escalation, the hope for peace remains dim.

“Israel’s long-term strategy remains ambiguous. While it is focused on dismantling Hamas, it lacks a clear vision for a viable alternative,” said Mahmoudian. “An ideal scenario might involve an Arab coalition, possibly led by Egypt, taking control; however, this seems unlikely at present.”

In Lebanon, the situation is equally precarious. US special envoy Amos Hochstein, who visited Beirut on Monday, said that the United States was working on a formula to permanently end the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, and that merely adhering to a previous UN resolution would fall short.

Israel has reportedly given the United States a document with its conditions for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Lebanon, Axios reported on Sunday, citing two US and two Israeli officials.

Israel has demanded its army forces be allowed to engage in “active enforcement” to make sure Hezbollah doesn’t rearm and rebuild its military infrastructure close to the border, per Axios’ report.

Israel also demanded its air force have freedom of operation in Lebanese air space, the report added.