U.S. Special Envoy Tom Barrack said Lebanon stands at a historic crossroads, warning that the country must swiftly move to reclaim its sovereignty by disarming Hezbollah and aligning with the region’s emerging peace framework or risk plunging into further paralysis and decline.

In an article titled “Syria and Lebanon Are the Next Pieces for Levant Peace,” Barrack described Lebanon as the “second frontier” in a broader regional transformation spearheaded by President Donald Trump’s peace initiative.

“Lebanon now faces a defining choice: to seize the path of national renewal or remain mired in paralysis and decline,” he wrote.

Barrack said that while Syria has begun stabilizing and re-engaging with its neighbors, Lebanon remains trapped in internal division and external dependency.

“As Syria reclaims stability with its neighbors, including Israel and Türkiye, it forms the first leg of Israel’s northern security framework. The second leg must be the disarmament of Hizballah within Lebanon and the beginning of security and border discussions with Israel,” he said.

The U.S. envoy criticized Beirut’s political paralysis and Hezbollah’s dominance over State institutions, describing the situation as “a fragile calm without peace, an army without authority and a government without control.”

He noted that the 2024 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, sponsored by the Biden administration and mediated by the United States, France, and the United Nations, failed because Lebanon “still views dealing with Israel as a crime and consequently no real mechanism for enforcement exists.”

According to Barrack, Washington made several attempts to help Lebanon move toward disarmament, including the “One More Try” plan — a U.S.-French framework offering phased disarmament, verified compliance, and economic incentives. The proposal, however, was rejected by the Lebanese government under pressure from Hezbollah.

“The Lebanese Cabinet and Council of Ministers are trapped in sectarian paralysis and are attempting to make a good faith step forward, which Israel has completely discounted,” Barrack said. “The Israelis have simply said the rhetoric does not match reality.”

He added that the U.S. had offered diplomatic and financial support to strengthen Lebanon’s military and provide economic incentives tied to disarmament.

“The United States just this month committed over 200 million additional dollars to the Lebanese Armed Forces,” Barrack wrote.

Washington, he said, was even ready to provide “diplomatic cover for Hizballah’s peaceful political transition” and link Gulf reconstruction aid to measurable progress. But these initiatives “have stalled while the rest of the region is accelerating towards expulsion of Iran’s terrorist proxies.”

Barrack stressed that dismantling Hezbollah’s military structure is no longer just an Israeli demand but a Lebanese necessity.

“The militia’s foreign control undermines Lebanon’s sovereignty, deters investment, and erodes public confidence,” he said.

“The incentives for action now outweigh the costs of inaction,” he added, warning that if Lebanon does not act, “Israel may act unilaterally – and the consequences would be grave.”

He argued that disarmament would restore Lebanon’s sovereignty and revive its economy.

“For Israel, it means a secure northern frontier. For Lebanon, it means sovereignty restored and the chance for economic revival,” Barrack said.

Barrack also cautioned that Hezbollah’s potential confrontation with Israel could destabilize Lebanon’s fragile political system ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections.

“If Hizballah comes under serious military attack from Israel and faces territorial, political, or reputational losses, it will almost certainly seek to postpone the May 2026 elections to preserve its power base and regroup,” he wrote.

Such a move, he warned, “would ignite major chaos within Lebanon, fracturing an already fragile political system and reigniting sectarian distrust.”

He said any delay in elections would be viewed as “an unconstitutional power grab by Hizballah to entrench its control and avoid accountability for the war’s devastation,” potentially sparking nationwide protests “reminiscent of the 2019 uprising – but this time amid armed tension and economic collapse.”

Barrack described the region as entering an unprecedented phase of cooperation, with Syria’s stabilization and Saudi Arabia’s expected formal accession to the Abraham Accords signaling a turning point.

“It is an extraordinary achievement to witness peace yielding dividends and prosperity taking root among nations that only a week ago were adversaries,” he wrote. “History will remember this as the week when a century of conflict began to give way to a generation of cooperation.”

Barrack revealed that President Trump’s newly appointed ambassador to Lebanon, Michel Issa, is set to arrive in Beirut next month “to help Lebanon steer a steady course through these complex issues.”

“Now is the time for Lebanon to act," he concluded.