Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri met at the Baabda Presidential Palace on Monday to lay the groundwork for direct dialogue with Hezbollah over its arsenal and the broader need for exclusive state control of arms, official sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

According to the sources, the objective of the dialogue is to “test the waters” and gauge Hezbollah’s willingness to reach an agreement on the fate of its weapons. Berri — Hezbollah’s last remaining political ally in Lebanon — is prepared to mediate if necessary to bridge differences between the presidency and the group.

The proposed dialogue is intended to remain direct and limited in scope, rather than be expanded into a broad roundtable with other political parties — a format that has repeatedly failed in the past to deliver tangible results. Sources noted that previous national dialogue sessions had produced agreements that were never implemented, underscoring the preference for focused, bilateral talks.

Deputy U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Morgan Ortagus, who visited Beirut last week, expressed understanding of Aoun’s approach and acknowledged the logic of direct dialogue with Hezbollah. However, she warned that time was running out for Lebanon to resolve the arms issue, which she described as a gateway to solving the country’s broader political and economic crises.

Ortagus met separately with Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Speaker Berri during her trip. According to the sources, her meetings helped “soften the American stance” on Lebanon’s handling of Hezbollah’s weapons — particularly Washington’s position against the use of force, which officials fear could endanger civil peace.

Ortagus reportedly conveyed Washington’s willingness to give the diplomatic track space to develop, provided that it results in concrete steps. She also confirmed she would likely return to Beirut by the end of April or early May to follow up on financial reforms and efforts to consolidate all arms under state control.

She emphasized the need for swift progress to avoid the process becoming a stalling tactic and warned of the risks Lebanon faces if it fails to meet international expectations. “The state’s monopoly on arms is a prerequisite to restoring confidence in Lebanon and unlocking much-needed international aid,” the sources quoted her as saying.

Hezbollah is aware that disarmament cannot happen overnight, the sources said, but delays cannot be used as a pretext to avoid obligations under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 — which calls for the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon and has been central to efforts to de-escalate hostilities with Israel since 2006.

The group has said it remains committed to Lebanon’s diplomatic efforts and to respecting the ceasefire with Israel, provided that Israel withdraws from remaining occupied territory in southern Lebanon. But Hezbollah’s recent involvement in launching attacks from Lebanon in support of Gaza has fueled criticism that the party is dragging the country into a conflict not of its choosing.

According to political observers, Hezbollah’s position has weakened significantly in recent months. Aside from Berri, the group now stands politically isolated, facing local, regional, and international calls to disarm. Sources cited the decline of Iran’s influence across the region and Tehran’s inward shift toward regime preservation as factors that have left Hezbollah increasingly exposed.

“The Resistance Axis is no longer what it once was,” said one political source. “Hezbollah has no choice but to adapt to the new regional dynamics and work within the framework of the Lebanese state.”

Dialogue or Delay?

The key question, observers say, is whether Hezbollah is genuinely open to giving up its weapons or merely using dialogue as a means to buy time while Iran seeks to strengthen its hand ahead of potential negotiations with the United States.

European diplomatic sources have reportedly urged Hezbollah to reconsider its political priorities and put Lebanon’s national interest first. The group has long monopolized the country’s decisions on war and peace — powers that, under the constitution, reside with the state — a stance that has led to years of internal tensions and political fragmentation.

Hezbollah's recent creation of a “support front” for Gaza and its involvement in cross-border confrontations with Israel have significantly increased its political costs. According to the sources, the destruction caused by Israeli airstrikes has left the group unable to rebuild without external financial assistance — assistance that is contingent on Lebanon reestablishing the rule of law and state authority.

Ortagus reportedly discussed with Lebanese leaders the possibility of forming three diplomatic task forces: one focused on the release of Lebanese detainees in Israel, another on ensuring Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and a third on delineating the remaining land borders.

While the U.S. favors a structured diplomatic framework, Ortagus expressed openness to Lebanon’s preference for shuttle diplomacy — similar to the approach used during maritime border negotiations mediated by U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein. Those talks led to a breakthrough agreement in 2022 and are now seen as a potential model for resolving land disputes.

Whether the current efforts will lead to Hezbollah disarming remains uncertain. But sources close to the discussions said the international community, particularly the U.S. and European powers, are closely watching the next moves. The outcome will determine not only the future of Lebanon’s security apparatus but also the country's ability to exit its long-standing crisis and rejoin the international fold.