Hezbollah is confronting a new reality in Lebanon, one that is drastically different from what it was before October 8, 2023. The war Israel waged against the group has left it severely weakened, effectively setting it back years. In light of this, Hezbollah must now make a clear decision: either fully comply with the terms of the ceasefire agreement and hand over its weapons, or pursue a path leading to a new war—one that would only spell disaster for Lebanon and its supporters.

According to numerous strategic analysts, the group is likely to have no choice but to scale back its political ambitions, both in the present and the future. This shift follows the collapse of its long-standing "deterrence" narrative, which crumbled during the recent conflict with Israel. Hezbollah either dragged itself or was dragged into a war of support, committing a grave error that directly impacted its supporters—who have suffered widespread destruction, displacement, and death. As a result, the Shiite community, overwhelmingly, has started to approach the situation with greater realism, admitting that the party has deceived them for years with its promises of taming Israeli madness. 

Simultaneously, political observers are concerned that Iran might give Hezbollah the green light to provoke internal conflict if it perceives a decline in its popular support, particularly with the upcoming 2026 parliamentary elections on the horizon. These observers told Kataeb.org that Iran is seeking to achieve its objectives through the ballot boxes, and might, based on predictions or speculations, attempt to disrupt the electoral process by triggering a "security shock." This could happen either directly through Hezbollah or via certain intelligence operations.

Given these circumstances, the new administration under President Joseph Aoun faces a significant challenge. The core goal of his term is to reassert Lebanon's state sovereignty across its entire territory and to ensure that weapons are strictly controlled by the legitimate armed forces. Meanwhile, Hezbollah remains adamant about imposing its will on the country by refusing to relinquish its arms. This intransigence is bound to impact the upcoming elections, with potentially severe consequences that could escalate to unprecedented levels.

This is an English adaptation of an Arabic article written by Chady Hilani.