Syria’s Collapse and Israeli Attacks Leave Iran Exposed

A week of punishing Israeli airstrikes on Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad didn’t just set Syria’s own military back years, experts said, but also peeled away another layer of Iranian defenses in the region, leaving Tehran more exposed than it has been in decades.

Iran’s growing vulnerability has generated alarm within the government, stirring fears that its steadily escalating conflict with Israel could soon enter a more dangerous phase. Hard-line supporters of the regime are talking more publicly, and more frequently, about adopting nuclear deterrence to thwart a possible Israeli attack. And among the country’s beleaguered opposition, there is new hope that the crumbling of Iranian power abroad could lead to a loosening of authoritarian rule at home.

“The fingers of the Islamic Republic are being cut off and are getting weaker,” one activist from eastern Iran said by phone, speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals.

After Assad’s ouster by Islamist rebels — preceded by the abrupt departure of Iranian advisers and the withdrawal of allied regional forces — Israel took advantage of the power vacuum to destroy vast amounts of Syrian military infrastructure. Hundreds of strikes destroyed warplanes, helicopters, weapons caches and the bulk of the country’s navy.

Israel said it was launching the strikes to prevent advanced military equipment from falling into the hands of militants, but analysts said the attacks were also aimed at further weakening Iran. Under Assad’s decades-long rule, Tehran installed military officials in the country to prop up his regime, and to protect the land routes it used to send weapons and other support to Hezbollah in Lebanon and armed proxies in Iraq.

“It was like a root canal,” Yoram Schweitzer, a former Israeli intelligence officer, said of the bombing campaign in Syria. “Iran is always part of the picture.”

Syria’s former radar systems could have provided Iran with early warnings of an Israeli attack, Schweitzer said, while its advanced Russian air defenses were a “constraining factor” for Israel’s maneuverability in the area, according to Gregory Brew, an Iran analyst at the Eurasia Group.

“Israel now has a clear route to Iran and will likely continue to have one for the foreseeable future,” Brew said, explaining that rebuilding or replacing the destroyed equipment could take years.

“Iran was exposed already, and the October strikes proved that,” he added, referring to a wave of Israeli attacks that hit some of the country’s most sensitive military sites. Brew likened Iran’s strategic position to the situation it faced in the 1980s during its brutal cross-border war with Iraq, or in 2003 when the United States invaded Baghdad.

Even before Assad was toppled, Israel was in the midst of an extensive covert aerial campaign against Iranian assets in Syria, carrying out more than 100 airstrikes on Syrian territory since October 2023 — most publicly unacknowledged — according to a U.N. tally.

A Washington Post analysis of Iranian media reports and statements from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps found at least 24 IRGC officers were killed in Syria over the past 14 months. The strikes were aimed at “gutting the middle of IRGC leadership, designed to get the structure to collapse in on itself,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a conservative Washington think tank.

On Jan. 20, five Iranian officers were killed in a strike on Damascus. On April 1, seven Iranian officers were killed in a strike on a building adjacent to Iran’s embassy in Damascus, prompting Iran’s first-ever direct attack on Israeli territory.

Iran launched its second direct attack on Israel in October after a series of devastating blows to its ally Hezbollah, including an Israeli strike that killed the group’s leader, Hasan Nasrallah. On Sunday, nearly three weeks into a ceasefire agreement with Israel, Hezbollah acknowledged, and sought to downplay, the reality that it had been cut off from Iran.

“Hezbollah has lost the supply route coming through Syria at the current stage, but this is a small detail and may change with time,” said Naim Qassem, the group’s new leader. He added that Hezbollah was exploring other ways to rearm, possibly seeking an agreement under Syria’s “new regime.”

In the face of mounting losses, Iranian politicians have begun speaking more openly about the possibility of developing nuclear weapons as a deterrent to attacks. Lamenting Assad’s fall, one hard-line member of parliament, Ahmad Naderi, called in a Dec. 8 post on X for Iran to test “an atomic bomb.”

A U.S. intelligence report released this month referenced the public debate in Iran, saying that it reflected “a perception that Iran needs to rectify a strategic imbalance with its adversaries,” and that the country’s position “risks emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran’s decision-making apparatus.”

Since last year, Iran has increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog. In an analysis of the report from the Institute for Science and International Security, researchers concluded that Iran would need roughly one month to further refine that stockpile into weapons-grade fuel.

U.S. administrations have been careful to avoid any direct confrontation with Iran, and the Biden White House warned Israel against hitting nuclear or oil facilities in its October attack. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has signaled a desire to capitalize on gains against Hamas and Hezbollah and take on Tehran more aggressively under a new U.S. administration.

Addressing Iran and Hezbollah, Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel “will continue to act against you whenever necessary, in any arena and at any time,” according to a statement from his office after a Saturday call with President-elect Donald Trump. Asked in a Time magazine interview on Nov. 25 about the prospect of war with Iran, Trump replied that “anything can happen.”

In Iran, activists are watching the situation closely, hoping events in Syria and across the region could energize the anti-government movement.

“The fall of Bashar al-Assad didn’t only raise the hopes of the opposition but also raised the spirits of the Iranian nation,” said the activist from the eastern Iran.

The streets have largely been quiet since 2023, when the government violently put down a nationwide uprising sparked by the death in police custody of a young Kurdish woman, who was allegedly detained for violating the country’s dress code for women. But women have continued to challenge the mandatory hijab, which remains a symbol for many of deeper frustrations over state repression.

Last week, singer Parastoo Ahmadi streamed a video on social media that showed her performing without a headscarf. “I am Parastoo, a girl who wants to sing for the people I love. This is a right that I could not ignore,” she wrote in a message to her fans. The concert received hundreds of thousands of views online in a matter of hours. On Saturday, she was briefly arrested, her lawyer said, but has not been informed of the charges against her.

Amid the cautious hope, the activist in eastern Iran said there are new fears, too, that the government could respond to its setbacks abroad by tightening its grip domestically, possibly using some of the same militias that pulled back from Syria as the rebels marched toward Damascus.

These are groups that “committed crimes in Syria for a few bucks,” the activist said, and could now represent “a serious danger” to Iranians.

State Security Seizes Military Equipment Linked to Hezbollah in Lebanese University Warehouse

Baissari Appoints New Head for Masnaa Border Crossing

From Supporters to Plaintiffs: Shiite Residents Break Fear Barrier with Lawsuits Against Hezbollah

One Killed in Israeli Strike in South Lebanon

Lebanese Army Enforces Resolution 1701, Expands Deployment in South

Syria’s Collapse and Israeli Attacks Leave Iran Exposed

Beirut Gets a Reprieve—but for How Long?

Iran’s Axis Crumbles as Hezbollah and Assad Falter

A Diminished Hezbollah Is Made Even Weaker by the Toppling of Assad in Syria

What Assad’s Fall Means for Lebanon

Ronaldo to Run for Brazil Federation Presidency

Cristiano Ronaldo Unveils New Private Jet Worth $73 Million

Guardiola Accepts Man City May Need to Sign More Players to Cope with Schedule

Eddie Jordan Reveals Cancer Battle Which F1 Legend Says Has Spread 'Aggressively'

Cristiano Ronaldo Says World Cup 2034 in Saudi Arabia Will Be ‘Best’ Ever

Syria’s Collapse and Israeli Attacks Leave Iran Exposed

World Cup Qualifier Between Syria and Lebanon Halted after Fans Riot

Syria War Escalating, More Probes Needed into Civilian Casualties, Say UN Experts

2 Civilians Killed in Israeli Airstrike near Damascus

World Cup Qualifier Between Syria and Lebanon Halted after Fans Riot

Syria War Escalating, More Probes Needed into Civilian Casualties, Say UN Experts

2 Civilians Killed in Israeli Airstrike near Damascus

Hankach: We Will Not Surrender, We Will Not Compromise

Kataeb Party Blames Ruling Class for Conducting Biggest Electoral Bribery with Depositors’ Money

Gemayel Calls on Lebanese to Hold Accountable Ruling Authority, Hezbollah and Central Bank Governorship

Kataeb Party Meets with EPP Members, Warns against any Attempt to Hinder upcoming Parliamentary Elections

State Security Seizes Military Equipment Linked to Hezbollah in Lebanese University Warehouse

Baissari Appoints New Head for Masnaa Border Crossing

From Supporters to Plaintiffs: Shiite Residents Break Fear Barrier with Lawsuits Against Hezbollah

One Killed in Israeli Strike in South Lebanon

Lebanese Army Enforces Resolution 1701, Expands Deployment in South

Syria’s Collapse and Israeli Attacks Leave Iran Exposed

Beirut Gets a Reprieve—but for How Long?

Iran’s Axis Crumbles as Hezbollah and Assad Falter

A Diminished Hezbollah Is Made Even Weaker by the Toppling of Assad in Syria

What Assad’s Fall Means for Lebanon

Ronaldo to Run for Brazil Federation Presidency

Cristiano Ronaldo Unveils New Private Jet Worth $73 Million

Guardiola Accepts Man City May Need to Sign More Players to Cope with Schedule

Eddie Jordan Reveals Cancer Battle Which F1 Legend Says Has Spread 'Aggressively'

Cristiano Ronaldo Says World Cup 2034 in Saudi Arabia Will Be ‘Best’ Ever

Syria’s Collapse and Israeli Attacks Leave Iran Exposed

Related news

World Cup Qualifier Between Syria and Lebanon Halted after Fans Riot

Syria War Escalating, More Probes Needed into Civilian Casualties, Say UN Experts

2 Civilians Killed in Israeli Airstrike near Damascus

Related news

World Cup Qualifier Between Syria and Lebanon Halted after Fans Riot

Syria War Escalating, More Probes Needed into Civilian Casualties, Say UN Experts

2 Civilians Killed in Israeli Airstrike near Damascus

Most Read

Hankach: We Will Not Surrender, We Will Not Compromise

Kataeb Party Blames Ruling Class for Conducting Biggest Electoral Bribery with Depositors’ Money

Gemayel Calls on Lebanese to Hold Accountable Ruling Authority, Hezbollah and Central Bank Governorship

Kataeb Party Meets with EPP Members, Warns against any Attempt to Hinder upcoming Parliamentary Elections