Lebanese security and military officials said the assassination of Haitham Ali Tabatabaei, Hezbollah’s chief of staff and the group’s second-in-command militarily, was not only a high-precision strike deep inside Beirut’s southern suburbs. It also signaled the start of a new phase of confrontation centered on the systematic “decapitation” of Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to prevent the rebuilding of capabilities lost during the 2024 war.

According to multiple Lebanese security sources who spoke to Erem News, the strike that killed Tabatabaei unfolded within a single “intelligence hour.” Tabatabaei had been living in a secret apartment on Arid Street in Haret Hreik, far from known Hezbollah command locations. Despite the precautions, Israeli intelligence detected his presence in the building on Sunday afternoon and launched “Operation Black Friday” less than an hour later, targeting the fourth and fifth floors of a densely populated residential block.

A Lebanese military official described the operation as “a remote surgical assassination,” noting that Israeli drones had flown low over the southern suburbs for hours. Footage released later showed the missile carving a deep cavity into the façade of the building without demolishing it completely.

“Tel Aviv wanted to remind the party that it can reach its leadership in its most secure sanctuary,” one official said, adding that the current ceasefire “is not a shield protecting its commanders but a temporary arrangement Israel will breach the moment it believes Hezbollah has crossed a red line.”

Lebanese political and security sources said the assassination capped a year of systematic eliminations that began with the killing of senior commanders from Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, followed by strikes on missile and drone unit leaders and front-line commanders in the south and western sectors.

“The sword has now reached the neck of the man who held all the threads of the southern front, from Sidon to the border,” one source said.

Israeli leaks indicate that the “target bank” extends beyond Hezbollah leaders still inside Lebanon. It includes senior figures in Units Nasr, Aziz, and Badr, which are responsible for reorganizing defensive lines north of the Litani River. The list also contains officers working on precision-guided missiles and long-range drones, considered by Israel to be “centers of gravity” in Hezbollah’s effort to restore its ability to threaten deep inside Israeli territory after losing much of its arsenal in 2024.

Israeli target lists also reportedly include Iranian advisers, particularly those linked to the IRGC’s Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria. Israeli officials regard these advisers as “the real architects” of Hezbollah’s rebuilding effort; a view reflected in what Western think tanks increasingly describe as a “shadow war” involving cyber operations and focused strikes on IRGC networks across the region.

A Lebanese security source said the prevailing mood inside Israel’s security establishment favors accelerating assassinations “as long as it does not trigger a full-scale war that Washington seeks to avoid.” The source cited public comments by local officials in northern Israel openly calling for a “one-by-one process until the last commander capable of managing Hezbollah’s battle is eliminated.”

How Israel Found Abu Ali Tabatabaei

Despite the official secrecy surrounding the case, Lebanese military sources believe the strike relied on a combination of human intelligence and advanced surveillance technology. Tabatabaei, known for extreme caution, frequently changed residences and communication methods. The United States has long offered a $5 million reward for information leading to him, fueling speculation that “dozens of eyes” — inside and outside Lebanon — tracked his movements.

Meanwhile, Western reports increasingly document Israel’s expanded use of artificial-intelligence–based targeting systems. Specialized units inside Israeli military intelligence feed massive volumes of imagery, communications intercepts, and field data into algorithms that automatically generate priority lists for airstrikes. These systems were heavily used in Gaza and later adapted for the Lebanese front.

According to a Lebanese security official, the Beirut strike “bore the fingerprints of this new method.” He said that in a dense urban environment constantly monitored by Israeli reconnaissance drones, AI systems can detect subtle changes in movement patterns in and out of specific buildings.

“With even a small piece of human intelligence, the target becomes a top priority within minutes,” he said.

Hezbollah, he added, has tried to counter this shift by banning smartphones in sensitive areas, reverting to landlines and human couriers, and rotating sleeping locations almost daily.

“But after years of building a target bank, any semi-public appearance by a commander of this caliber carries enormous risk,” he said.

For now, Lebanese political sources expect Hezbollah’s response to be “measured in time and scope,” calibrated to avoid collapsing the ceasefire that Washington insists on maintaining due to the Gaza conflict, the Iranian nuclear file, and broader regional negotiations.

But the same sources warned that if Israel continues exploiting the ceasefire’s “ambiguity margin” to eliminate top-tier leaders inside or outside Lebanon, Hezbollah may feel compelled to “rewrite the rules of the game” in ways that could prove difficult to contain, especially if more strikes match the impact of Tabatabaei’s killing or target senior IRGC officers.

While Israeli security–aligned analysts speak of a “rolling plan to shrink Hezbollah and prevent the Israeli army’s exhaustion,” Lebanese observers said the coming days will be a crucial test of the group’s ability to “absorb” the loss of the man who spent the past year rebuilding its shattered military structures without igniting an uncontrolled escalation.