As Israel’s war in Lebanon enters its fourth week, military developments on the ground point to an intensification and broadening of targets, with recent strikes expanding to include infrastructure and bridges linking areas north and south of the Litani River.

At the same time, Hezbollah has escalated its operations against Israeli forces, conducting attacks within Lebanese territory along the southern front line and extending its reach into Israeli territory.

Attention is now shifting to what comes next, as Israel weighs potential scenarios for the conflict’s next phase, including expanded air campaigns and a possible deeper ground incursion. So far, Israeli forces have advanced only a few kilometers into southern Lebanon, along several axes. These include the eastern sector around Khiyam and the Kfarkila–Adaysseh–Markaba–Taybeh corridor, the central sector spanning Yaroun, Maroun al-Ras, and Aytaroun, and the western sector covering Ayta al-Shaab, Qawzah, Labouneh, Naqoura, and Alma al-Shaab.

According to sources monitoring the conflict cited by Al-Modon, Israel’s targeting of key bridges appears aimed at isolating areas south of the Litani River from the north and tightening pressure on Hezbollah by disrupting what it sees as the group’s military supply lines. The same strategy could also be laying the groundwork for turning the area south of the river into a “scorched zone,” weakening Hezbollah’s ability to sustain its operations.

However, the sources say that objective remains difficult to achieve, as Hezbollah has continued its attacks despite the destruction of several crossings. Israel is therefore expected to keep targeting remaining bridges over the river, while also identifying and striking rocket launch sites on both sides of the Litani. These efforts are likely to continue alongside attempts to push further inland along the eastern, central, and western fronts.

Multiple ground scenarios

Observers cited by Al-Modon say several scenarios remain possible for a broader Israeli ground offensive, depending largely on the army’s ability to advance northward.

One scenario envisions a prolonged war of attrition, in which Hezbollah retains the capacity to slow or block Israeli advances.

A second would see Israeli forces succeed in weakening Hezbollah’s front-line defenses and advancing toward the Litani River. This could involve pushing into the Khardali area in the eastern sector, moving toward Bint Jbeil and into the Slouqi and Hujeir valleys in the central sector, and advancing toward Tayr Harfa and Shamaa in the western sector.

A third, more ambitious scenario would hinge on Israel eliminating any Hezbollah presence south of the Litani. In that case, Israel could seek to reestablish a modified version of the pre-2000 occupied border zone, taking control of strategic high ground overlooking both sides of the river in the east, positions along its southern bank in the central sector, and coastal areas near Tyre in the west.

Such a development would effectively bring Israeli forces to the outskirts of Kfartebnit from the Khardali axis, including the Beaufort Castle (Qalaat al-Shaqif–Arnoun) area, the Reyhan hills, and elevated terrain overlooking Iqlim al-Tuffah and Nabatiyeh. It would also extend to the outskirts of Tebnine from the Bint Jbeil axis and toward the approaches to Tyre from the Bayyada area.

In the Jezzine sector, the sources said Israel could limit its advance to the Kfarhouna triangle to secure control over the main route linking to the western Bekaa via Qatrani and Sreireh, potentially following an advance from the Hasbaya direction.

For now, however, such scenarios remain unlikely, with fighting still concentrated along the initial line of engagement. Any deeper advance will depend on battlefield developments, particularly Hezbollah’s ability to sustain its operations and Israel’s capacity to significantly degrade the group’s military capabilities, a task that analysts say remains difficult in the near term.