Fluctuations since the attack pushed oil prices as high as $96.

One worry is that the fighting could lead to complications with Iran, home of some of the world’s largest oil reserves. Its crude production has been constrained by international sanctions, but oil is still flowing to China and other countries.

“In order to get a sustained move (in prices), we really would need to see a supply disruption,” said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consultant.

Any damage to Iranian oil infrastructure from a military strike by Israel could send prices jumping globally. Even without that, a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that lies south of Iran could also shake the oil market because so much of the world’s supplies goes through the waterway.

Until something like that happens, “the oil market is going to be like everyone else, monitoring the events in the Middle East,” Lipow said.

One reason 1970s-style gas lines are unlikely: U.S. oil production is at an all-time high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, an arm of the Energy Department, reported that American oil production in the first week of October hit 13.2 million barrels per day, passing the previous record set in 2020 by 100,000 barrels. Weekly domestic oil production has doubled from the first week in October 2012 to now.

“The energy crisis of 1973 taught us many things, but in my mind, the most critical is that American energy strength is a tremendous source of security, prosperity and freedom around the world,’' said Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the U.S. oil industry’s top lobbying group.

In a speech Wednesday marking the 50th anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo, Sommers said current U.S. production contrasts sharply with “America’s weakened position during the Arab oil embargo.’' He urged U.S. policymakers to heed what he called the lessons of 1973.

“We cannot squander our strategic advantage and retreat on energy leadership,’' said Sommers, who has repeatedly criticized President Joe Biden’s policies restricting restricting new oil leases as part of Biden’s efforts to slow global climate change.

“With an unstable world, war in Europe, war in the Middle East, and energy demand outstripping supply, energy security is on the line,’' Sommers said in a speech at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank.

“American oil and gas are needed now more than ever,’' Sommers said. “Let’s take to heart the lessons we learned from 1973 and avoid sowing the seeds of the next energy crisis.’'

For now, the crisis isn’t a repeat of 1973. Arab countries aren’t attacking Israel in unison, and OPEC+ nations have not moved to restrict supplies or boost prices beyond a few extra dollars.

There are several wild cards in the energy market. One is the supply of Iranian oil. Eager to avoid a spike in gasoline prices and inflation, the U.S. has quietly tolerated some exports of Iranian oil to destinations such as China instead of going all in on sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program.