This week's gatherings come about a month after the IMF staff conducted a fact-finding mission to Beirut, where it held discussions with Aoun, Salam and other officials.

It is “too early” to guess how much money Lebanon will request from the IMF, Bisat said. Lebanon reached an agreement with the IMF in 2022 that would unlock about $3 billion in funding contingent on required reforms that Beirut did not meet.

Bisat said he expects discussions with the fund to continue over the next few weeks or months. Discussions are expected to focus on monetary policy, public finance, financial markets, the banking sector, depositors and electricity infrastructure.

First steps

Key among those reforms is the restructuring of the banking sector.

The country's economic collapse in 2019 was blamed on decades of financial mismanagement, and changes to the banking sector are seen as a crucial step towards Lebanon securing economic assistance from international partners.

Bisat reiterated his pledge to ensure depositors receive their funds which are frozen in the country's banks. Depositors have been waiting for their funds to be released for years.

He anticipated three steps: removing bank secrecy, establishing a bank resolution framework and following through with the enforcement of resolutions. Lebanon is currently waiting for a law to be passed in the parliament that would lift bank secrecy.

“It's going to take a while … but we're cautiously optimistic,” Bisat said, adding that these reforms are “extremely important” to rebuilding foreign investors' confidence.

He anticipates this renewed confidence would help patriate its labour force, bring in investments and help establish long-term planning.

“Confidence is extremely important to get Lebanon back to where it should be. Lebanon has no business being where it is,” Bisat said.

Tariff impact

Like much of the world, US President Donald Trump's tariffs are expected to have some effect on Lebanon's economy.

Lebanon's exports to the US in 2023 were totalled at $194 million, relatively small compared to America's main trade partners, meaning the direct result of the new tariffs on Beirut will likely be minimal.

At $194 million, Lebanon's exports to the US are relatively small compared to America's main trade partners, meaning the direct result of the new tariffs on Beirut will likely be minimal.

“However, the indirect impact will be quite significant,” Bisat said, pointing to the country's diaspora and a global downturn's impact on oil prices.

New forecasts from the IMF this week anticipate the global economy to slow from a 3.3 per cent pace last year to 2.8 per cent this year. The fund also raised its recession probability, although one is not currently in its forecast.

Still, he hope's the country's geographical location and human capital could benefit Lebanon in the global trade reset.

“Whenever you get these major shifts in trade relations of the kind that we're seeing right now, there is always winners and there are always losers. We like to believe that we could be part of the winners,” Bisat said.

He believes Lebanon is well-positioned as a near-shoring destination for European producers which could be more directly impacted by the tariffs.

“It's a double-edged sword. We could be hurt by a recession … but we could benefit from the rerouting of the supply chain.”