Lebanon is entering a critical phase as diplomatic efforts to stabilize the country intensify while tensions on the southern front threaten to push the country toward a broader military confrontation, Nidaa Al-Watan newspaper said.

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji are moving between New York and Washington as part of efforts to reinforce Lebanon’s stability through international and Arab support. Their diplomatic push comes as Hezbollah maintains a sharply different position on the group’s weapons and Lebanon’s relationship with Israel.

Salam and Rajji are due to meet U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington at 10 a.m. local time, with sovereignty, negotiations with Israel and U.S. support for Lebanon expected to be central to the talks.

U.S. sources told Nidaa Al-Watan that Washington and Beirut have reached an unprecedented degree of agreement around what they described as a single formula for sovereignty: one state, one army and a central authority with exclusive control over decisions of war and peace.

The sources said U.S. diplomatic, military and economic support for Lebanon is increasingly linked to the restoration of state authority and preventing Lebanon from being used as a platform for Iran’s regional strategy.

They said Washington, the Lebanese government, Arab countries and the wider international community were converging around the view that Lebanon’s sovereignty could not be considered complete as long as a non-state military group retained control over decisions of war.

The U.S. administration does not expect Hezbollah’s arsenal to be dismantled overnight, the sources said, but believes that any serious plan to revive Lebanon’s economy and institutions cannot bypass the issue or leave it unresolved indefinitely.

Talks With Israel, Economic Recovery

The Washington meetings are also expected to address negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, particularly the southern border and Israel’s military presence there, as well as the future of U.S. involvement in Lebanon.

Salam is expected to emphasize the importance of maintaining an active U.S. role, both in supporting the negotiating process and in helping Lebanon navigate a particularly sensitive period of regional tensions.

Economic issues will also feature prominently during the visit. Meetings planned with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank are expected to focus on financial recovery, economic reforms and foreign assistance.

A senior political source told Nidaa Al-Watan that contacts expected early next month could help revive the diplomatic track and the framework formula aimed at containing the escalation and preventing it from developing into a more serious military confrontation.

But as diplomacy works to contain tensions from Washington, developments on the ground are moving in the opposite direction, according to diplomatic sources.

U.S. diplomatic sources told Nidaa Al-Watan that the period following the battle of Ali al-Taher represents a dangerous turning point in the confrontation along Lebanon’s southern front.

According to the sources, Israeli assessments point to a decision to expand operations toward Iqlim al-Tuffah, the hills around Jezzine and Mount Rihan, potentially reaching the Western Bekaa.

The sources said the aim would be to establish a security belt extending toward southern Syria and Mount Hermon.

They linked the risk of such an expansion to the stalled process of bringing weapons under state control, warning that a widening military operation could draw Lebanon into a war involving areas that have so far remained outside the direct zone of confrontation.

Iran and Hezbollah

The tensions extend beyond southern Lebanon, with the source linking Hezbollah’s increasingly hard-line rhetoric to developments in Iran and Yemen.

According to the source, Tehran has been concerned by positions taken by Salam and Rajji during meetings in New York with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

The source said the subsequent escalation in statements by Hezbollah officials could reflect an Iranian effort to once again use Lebanon as a pressure point in the region.

The competing diplomatic and military tracks leave Lebanon facing a pivotal choice between efforts to advance negotiations and the risk of a broader confrontation.