The swift return of French Presidential Envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian to Lebanon and the announcement of a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza, which withdrew on the southern front, take a distinctly different way from previous visits, despite the presidential facade.

According to a diplomatic source in Paris, "Le Drian's visit has a more bilateral touch than a presidential one, especially after the failure of French diplomacy to handle the Lebanese presidential deadline, given the delicate Lebanese balances where one side cannot prevail over the other."

The French initiative began with a bilateral approach with Hezbollah, based on a formula of exchange that proved impossible to implement.

The French then sought a third option and ultimately lost confidence in their role, especially as the oil guarantees obtained by France in the Lebanese waters were thwarted provocatively. 

The source explains that "when the maritime consortium, led by TotalEnergies, obtained exploration and development licenses in Blocks 4 and 9, the first thing requested was the availability of security conditions. This was granted by the Lebanese state and directly by Hezbollah."

However, when the consortium faced pressures not to proceed with the drilling to the required depths and halted the work, claiming that no gas discoveries were made in this area, it was understood that the external decision was to prevent Lebanon from drifting into a confrontation in Gaza.

In this reality, the French administration lost its Lebanese credibility and could no longer play an active role in addressing complex political issues, especially the presidency.

Le Drian's visit aims to restore confidence in the French role, and this task will be difficult. It has become clear that based on the course of negotiations during the war on Gaza, the three countries with the power of influence are the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Qatar is also moving under this framework.

Therefore, the possible settlement in Lebanon will not have a French identity but will result from understanding the regional and international political consortium, which will rely on Riyadh's opinion on Lebanese solutions.

The source concludes, saying, "Le Drian's new mission is a wait-and-see game, and the French administration acknowledges that it has committed mistakes, especially in the recent period, where it was proven that it is not in a decision-making position."

This article was initially published in Arabic in Nidaa Al-Watan, translated by Christina Rai.