Israeli Northern Command officers have warned that maintaining a static military posture in Lebanon for an extended period could become increasingly dangerous for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and exact a deadly price, The Jerusalem Post reported on Wednesday.

According to the officers, Israeli surveillance and intelligence indicate that Hezbollah is studying IDF activity, drawing lessons from its operations and seeking to establish guerrilla cells capable of operating under the radar.

The IDF has now established what it calls a “kill zone” separating territory under Israeli control from areas controlled by Hezbollah. Northern Command chief Maj. Gen. Rafi Milo has laid out the policy in clear terms: anyone entering the zone will be killed.

To enforce that policy, the IDF has spent recent weeks strengthening coordination between ground forces, the Israeli Air Force and Military Intelligence to accelerate and improve the accuracy of target identification and strikes.

The coordination has produced results on the ground, but a key question within Northern Command is how long the current arrangement can be sustained and what will happen when winter arrives, bringing the severe weather typical of the region and potentially affecting the capabilities of both ground forces and aircraft.

Israeli officers have referred broadly to “Lebanese mud” as a problem expected to become increasingly significant in the coming months.

Hezbollah expected to mount response

Northern Command officers also warn that Hezbollah is unlikely to remain indefinitely in a state of restraint without mounting a significant response to the continued Israeli presence.

According to Israeli assessments, Hezbollah’s senior leadership is closely watching developments in Iran, with its next moves heavily dependent on what happens in Tehran.

At the same time, there is broad agreement within Israel’s defense establishment that Hezbollah is no longer the organization Israel faced at the beginning of the war nearly three years ago.

The group is operating without the powerful and experienced senior leadership it once had. Sheikh Naim Qassem, who initially appeared to be a weak or transitional leader, has nevertheless managed to maintain a balance among Hezbollah’s different branches.

The group also no longer has access to the vast budget it previously received with Iranian backing. Its weapons arsenal has been significantly reduced, as have its underground fortified positions and its pool of veteran field commanders who knew the terrain and routes along Lebanon’s northern border intimately.

There is also growing discontent among Hezbollah personnel over the organization’s approach to the Israeli military, while the group faces serious financial pressures as it struggles to pay salaries and pensions, support the families of those killed as “martyrs,” and provide assistance to wounded members and their dependents.

Nevertheless, Israeli officers caution against underestimating Hezbollah.

The organization is already rebuilding its capabilities and preparing for the next stage, they say, including by expanding its use of unmanned aerial vehicles and fiber-optic drones, which have proved effective in recent confrontations.

Can Israel sustain its presence?

The assessments come amid concern within Hezbollah that Israel’s next moves could target Nabatieh, described as the group’s “Jerusalem” and a major Shi’ite stronghold. For now, the IDF’s activity in the area is largely limited to airstrikes.

Another concern is whether the IDF will have sufficient resources to maintain its presence and prepare for winter across all of its operational arenas.

Israel’s budget crisis has raised questions over whether the military will have enough funds to meet the demands of winter operations, with conditions in Lebanon expected to be particularly difficult.

There are also doubts over the readiness of the IDF’s regular forces. With troops under prolonged strain, it remains unclear whether military divisions are training adequately for a renewed large-scale war and whether they have operational plans that could be implemented at short notice.