The investigation into Lebanon’s devastating 2020 Beirut port explosion has entered what could be its most consequential phase, with investigating judge Tarek Bitar expected to issue his indictment within weeks after nearly six years of political and legal battles.

The case accelerated after Bitar received a roughly 200-page legal submission prepared by Public Prosecutor at the Court of Cassation Judge Mohammad Saab.

Some details from the submission were leaked to the media, prompting the Public Prosecution at the Court of Cassation to launch a confidential investigation into the source and motives of the leak. Former President Michel Aoun also filed a personal complaint with the prosecution after his name appeared in media reports about the submission.

Sources told Al-Modon, however, that the document contains more sensitive information than the details that have so far emerged publicly.

Indictment expected before end of October

A judicial source told Al-Modon that the investigation has reached its final stage and that Bitar is expected to issue his indictment before the end of October.

The indictment, which is expected to run to about 900 pages, would then be submitted to the Public Prosecution at the Court of Cassation before being referred to the Judicial Council, paving the way for a trial.

Judges on the Judicial Council could need about six weeks to review the extensive case file and complete the preparations required to begin public hearings.

But the case is likely to face significant procedural obstacles once it reaches the Judicial Council, potentially stretching the trial over several years.

The council will have to notify more than 1,000 plaintiffs of hearing dates, a process that could place a considerable burden on security agencies and require additional time.

The future composition of the Judicial Council could also affect the case. Its president, Suhail Abboud, is due to retire in June 2027, potentially leaving the case to a successor appointed to head the Higher Judicial Council.

The council is also handling numerous other cases referred to it. Moreover, trials are suspended during the annual judicial recess, which begins on July 15, 2027, and lasts three months. Any vacancy among the council’s five judges could also prevent hearings from being held and lead to further delays.

What the indictment could reveal

Despite the potential delays ahead, the most sensitive moment is likely to come before the case reaches the Judicial Council — when Bitar issues his indictment and its contents become public.

The document is expected to lay out details surrounding the shipment of ammonium nitrate that exploded at the port, including where the material came from and the ship’s actual destination after it suffered a breakdown at sea.

Those findings could shed light on some of the most contentious questions surrounding the disaster and potentially produce major surprises for the Lebanese public.

The indictment is also expected to identify the actual owners of the ammonium nitrate and address whether Hezbollah or the former Syrian regime played any direct or indirect role.

It is expected to provide answers to questions that have fueled political and public debate since the explosion on Aug. 4, 2020, which killed more than 200 people, wounded thousands and devastated large parts of Beirut.

Foreign involvement and possible U.S. sanctions

The investigation has long extended beyond Lebanon’s borders, with several countries supporting efforts to bring the case to a conclusion.

According to information reported by Al-Modon, discreet messages have reached Beirut suggesting that Washington could consider imposing sanctions under the Magnitsky Act on some defendants in the port case over alleged involvement in obstructing judicial proceedings and violating human rights.

Lebanese authorities have also received foreign judicial requests in recent months containing new information about the ammonium nitrate shipment, according to Al-Modon.

Lebanon had previously contacted Syria following the fall of the former Assad regime, seeking cooperation and any available information related to the shipment and the circumstances surrounding the blast.

Political and security figures face possible measures

Judicial circles are also preparing for several steps expected to take place before October.

One of the most significant would be the announcement of a date for a hearing at which political, security and judicial figures who have been questioned during the investigation would be summoned and formally informed of the legal measures being taken against them.

Those summoned could face several possible outcomes.

Bitar could issue an arrest warrant in their presence and ask the Public Prosecution at the Court of Cassation to enforce it. According to Al-Modon, the prosecution is prepared to execute any in-person or in-absentia arrest warrants it is instructed to enforce.

Another possibility would be release accompanied by a travel ban.

A third would be a decision to halt proceedings against an individual because of insufficient evidence.