Israel’s military believes its recent operations against Hezbollah have pushed the group closer than ever to total disarmament, according to senior defense officials. The Israeli army says sustained pressure since the ceasefire agreement in November has crippled the group's capabilities, both operationally and strategically.

“We are pushing away every threat and eliminating anyone who tries to threaten and approach the border area… Hezbollah is far from us, and we strike it at every opportunity," outgoing Northern Command chief Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin said in a briefing with reporters on Tuesday at an Israeli outpost near the Lebanese border.

Since the truce took effect, the Israeli army has maintained positions at five key sites inside Lebanese territory and has conducted more than 500 airstrikes, targeting what it calls Hezbollah violations of the ceasefire. These include strikes on infrastructure, weapons depots, and command centers. According to the military, at least 230 Hezbollah fighters have been killed in these strikes, and more than 90 rocket launchers, 20 command posts, 40 arms warehouses, and five production facilities have been destroyed.

Ground operations have also intensified, with troops conducting hundreds of missions near the outposts. These raids uncovered weapons caches and further dismantled Hezbollah’s combat infrastructure, according to military officials.

The ceasefire agreement is monitored by a multinational committee chaired by the United States, which includes France, Israel, Lebanon, and UNIFIL observers. Israel has submitted 1,280 complaints alleging Hezbollah violations. Of these, 670 were passed to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) for enforcement, with 456 addressed, 80 handled by Israeli airstrikes, and 18 deemed irrelevant.

Military sources noted that the LAF’s cooperation has improved, though not at the pace Israel would prefer. Nonetheless, the Israeli army insists that Hezbollah’s battlefield setbacks have been significant, and not only during the two-month war from September to November. Officials estimate 25%–30% of their strategic gains occurred after the ceasefire, through continued operations to prevent the group’s regrouping.

Hezbollah’s manpower has taken a severe hit, as the Israeli military estimates that 4,000 to 5,000 of the group’s 25,000 regular fighters have been killed, and another 9,000 seriously wounded. Within its elite Radwan unit, over half of its 6,000 fighters have been neutralized or incapacitated. Meanwhile, the group is said to be struggling to replenish its ranks, especially at the tactical command level.

In terms of firepower, Israel claims it has eliminated 70–80% of Hezbollah’s rocket-launching capacity. Most remaining rockets are believed to be short-range mortars, with only a few hundred long-range systems left. After widespread destruction in Lebanon’s southern villages, most of Hezbollah’s arsenal is now concentrated north of the Litani River.

Although there have been minor efforts to rebuild in border towns, those areas remain largely abandoned by civilians, limiting Hezbollah’s operational cover. The Israeli army also continues to strike targets beyond the south. Recent attacks included a Radwan training site in the Beqaa Valley and drone factories in Beirut.

Israeli officials also attribute Hezbollah’s declining strength to regional developments. The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December disrupted a key supply route from Iran, cutting off weapons deliveries.

Despite requests from Iran during its conflict with Israel in June, Hezbollah refrained from entering the fray. Officials say Secretary General Naim Qassem received multiple appeals from Tehran to join the war, all of which were declined. The Israeli army interprets this as a sign of low morale and reluctance to escalate, particularly as Hezbollah focuses on rebuilding what remains of its fractured forces.

While Qassem recently insisted the group would not disarm, Israeli officials cite increasing domestic pressure in Lebanon calling for Hezbollah to lay down its weapons.

“The achievements against Hezbollah would enable the goal of disarming Hezbollah," Gordin said. “I believe it would be very wise and beneficial for the state of Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. The greatest damage Lebanon has suffered was because of Hezbollah, and it would be best if it no longer existed.”

He emphasized that Israeli forces would continue their deployment along the Lebanese border for the foreseeable future.

“We will stay here for as long as needed and will provide strong and significant defense for the residents of the north,” he said.