Lebanon today stands at a turning point in its history. After years of economic collapse, political paralysis and the corrosive dominance of the Iranian-backed party and armed paramilitary group Hezbollah, the country faces a stark choice: Seize the chance to reclaim its sovereignty and democratic promise or remain hostage to Hezbollah’s weapons and Iran’s influence. 

The upcoming parliamentary elections, expected to be held in May, will not just be another contest for seats; they will be a test of whether Lebanon’s people, at home and abroad, can assert control over their own destiny.

One decisive step Lebanon can take is to guarantee full voting rights for its diaspora. Millions of Lebanese abroad remain closely tied to their homeland — supporting families through remittances, investing in businesses and advocating for Lebanon internationally. Yet under the 2017 electoral law, the diaspora is treated as a separate constituency with only six reserved parliamentary seats out of a total of 128. 

In other words, instead of voting for candidates in their original home districts, like residents do, millions of Lebanese abroad are restricted to electing just six members of Parliament from around the world. 

In 2018 and 2022, that rule was temporarily set aside, and expatriate votes were counted in their home constituencies. But unless the law is amended, the six-seat limit will return in 2026, cutting the diaspora’s political influence to a fraction of what it could and should be.

Lebanon’s first experiment with diaspora voting in 2018 marked a milestone in expanding political participation beyond its borders. For the first time, Lebanese abroad were given a voice in shaping their country’s future. Participation has only grown since, with approximately 140,000 expatriates casting ballots in 2022, representing about 7 percent of the total electorate. 

What is especially striking about 2022 is that this growing diaspora turnout showed clear signs of realignment: Many expatriate voters increasingly supported reformist, independent or “change” candidates rather than traditional sectarian or Hezbollah-aligned lists.

The diaspora vote surged in districts where margins were tight, and in many cases tilted toward those calling for accountability, transparency and governance reform, undermining the dominance of established sectarian blocs.

Despite this progress, the promise of diaspora enfranchisement remains only partially fulfilled. In June, an amendment to the electoral law that would have guaranteed diaspora voting like residents in their home districts was quietly shelved when Parliament’s Speaker refused to place it on the legislative agenda.

The move underscored just how threatening much of the political establishment — and especially the Hezbollah-Amal alliance — views expatriate participation. These established parties regard the diaspora as more reformist, less controllable and more inclined to support independent and opposition candidates. 

They understand that full diaspora enfranchisement could cement a parliamentary bloc strong enough to deny Hezbollah its majority alliances and redraw Lebanon’s political map. In a fragmented system, where many districts are decided by narrow margins, even modest increases in diaspora turnout could shift seats away from Hezbollah-aligned lists. 

For those in power, restricting diaspora participation remains a way to preserve the current balance of power.

But the Lebanese abroad must have equal voting rights. The Lebanese diaspora is far from being marginal: It is the country’s lifeline. Each year, expatriates send home billions of dollars in remittances that keep families afloat and stabilize the economy. They invest in businesses, sustain schools and hospitals and serve as Lebanon’s most effective advocates on the international stage.

Their voice is an inseparable part of the political process. To exclude or restrict their role is to refuse to acknowledge that Lebanon’s survival depends as much on its citizens abroad as those within its borders.

Faced with this deadlock, the diaspora must mobilize. Registration campaigns ahead of the 2026 elections could dramatically increase participation, making it harder for politicians to dismiss their role. Many parliamentarians depend on diaspora votes in their home constituencies, which is why organized expatriates could reshape their calculus. 

Local civil society and media can, simultaneously, keep the issue alive, framing it not as a technical debate but as a matter of fairness and sovereignty — and rolling back rights already exercised in 2018 and 2022 would be democratic regression. A transparent framework for diaspora participation, in contrast, would bolster Lebanon’s credibility at a moment when it desperately needs international trust.

U.S. policymakers and other international partners must also play their part, recognizing that diaspora voting is not only a matter of electoral integrity, but also the linchpin of Lebanon’s political balance of power.

Restrictions on the diaspora’s participation preserve Hezbollah’s ability to dictate outcomes in Parliament. Expansion of diaspora participation opens space for a different reality — one where reformist, independent and opposition voices have a fair chance to compete, and where Hezbollah’s dominance is finally broken.

In the end, what is at stake is far more than a few seats in Parliament. The fight over diaspora voting is a fight over Lebanon’s future: It is Lebanon’s clearest path to breaking Hezbollah’s stranglehold on power and charting a sovereign path rooted in accountability, pluralism and the will of its people.