Israel’s latest strikes on strategic highlands in southern Lebanon signal a possible new phase of military operations aimed at dismantling rear defensive lines and disrupting links between the southern front and the western Bekaa, Lebanese sources told Erem News.

The strikes came shortly after Israel targeted the Ali al-Taher heights overlooking Nabatiyeh, as Israeli warplanes hit the Jabal al-Rafi’ heights and the outskirts of Sajd in the Iqlim al-Tuffah region.

Lebanese sources said the latest attacks suggested that Israel was shifting the focus of its air and ground operations toward the highlands of Iqlim al-Tuffah and Mount Rihan.

The sources said the strikes on the elevated terrain were particularly significant because of the area’s military geography. Jabal al-Rafi’ forms part of a continuous mountain range linked to the areas around Sajd and Rihan, giving it a commanding position over large parts of Iqlim al-Tuffah.

The sources said Mount Rihan was even more significant because of its broader geographic reach. It connects Iqlim al-Tuffah with three strategic areas: the outskirts of Jezzine, the northern gateway to southern Lebanon; the western Bekaa; and the Litani River valley.

Control of the high ground, they said, would provide a major surveillance and fire-control advantage toward Nabatiyeh and much of southern Lebanon.

The sources described the latest strikes as an indication that Israel may be seeking to sever vital geographic links between southern Lebanon and the western Bekaa, potentially disrupting routes used to move weapons and personnel toward the front lines.

Surveillance networks targeted

Political analyst Tanios Sabri al-Hajj told Erem News that the strikes on Jabal al-Rafi’ and Sajd were part of what he described as a newly developed Israeli plan to destroy surveillance and early-warning networks in the area.

Al-Hajj said Israeli strikes had focused on specific caves and rocky recesses in Jabal al-Rafi’, based on intelligence assessments that some of the sites were being used as advanced observation positions or platforms for launching heavy guided missiles and air-defense missiles.

He said Israel had also used heavy bunker-busting bombs and incendiary weapons in an apparent effort to reduce the dense forest cover around Sajd and Mount Rihan.

The objective, according to al-Hajj, was to remove natural cover that could allow fighters to conceal their movements.

He also said Lebanese security agencies had reported intensive and sustained Israeli aerial activity alongside the strikes, which he said was aimed at producing a three-dimensional topographical map of the area.

According to al-Hajj, the intelligence effort was intended to identify suspicious movements and isolate alternative supply routes connecting the western Bekaa with the villages of Iqlim al-Tuffah.

Those routes could be used to move heavy weapons and personnel reinforcements toward the front, he said.

Al-Hajj said Israel’s shift from the Ali al-Taher heights toward Jabal al-Rafi’ and Rihan pointed to an attempt to encircle and isolate southern Lebanon.

Control of Mount Rihan, he said, could effectively cut the supply routes supporting the eastern and central sectors of the southern front.

He added that if Israel succeeded in neutralizing what he described as deterrence capabilities in the mountains, it could gain direct oversight of the lowlands of Wadi Saluki and Wadi al-Hujeir while protecting its vulnerable flank in the eastern sector.

Three possible paths

The developments have raised three possible scenarios for the next stage of operations in the area, according to the assessment presented by Erem News.

The first would involve continued aerial and intelligence pressure without a major ground advance. Under that scenario, Israel would maintain intermittent strikes against selected targets and use drones to monitor and strike movements, seeking to keep the highlands in a state of logistical and operational paralysis.

The objective would be to prevent the mountains from being used as launching platforms for attacks against Israeli communities in northern Israel.

A second scenario would involve a gradual ground operation aimed at capturing key hills one by one.

If Israel’s military leadership chose to expand its ground operations, the sources said elite forces, including the Golani Brigade or commandos, could attempt to seize selected peaks in Jabal al-Rafi’ under heavy fire cover and turn them into permanent observation positions.

Such an operation would carry significant risks, however, particularly the possibility of Israeli troops being drawn into guerrilla ambushes in the forests and deep valleys around Sajd and Rihan.

A third scenario could emerge if sustained military pressure fails to achieve its objectives: an expansion of operations toward the western Bekaa.

That could bring areas around Rashaya and neighboring Bekaa towns into the conflict, transforming a localized confrontation in southern Lebanon into a wider, open-ended multi-front war with broader regional implications.

For now, the latest strikes suggest that the focus of the confrontation is moving beyond the traditional areas of fire along the Blue Line, according to the Lebanese sources and al-Hajj’s assessment.