Israel is stepping up preparations for a possible renewed escalation along the Lebanese front in the coming weeks, amid security and intelligence assessments that Iran, under mounting economic and financial pressure, could activate Hezbollah against Israel while avoiding direct involvement in a full-scale war.

According to Israel Hayom, citing Israeli security and intelligence officials, there is growing concern in Tel Aviv that Tehran could use Hezbollah as a tool to exert pressure on Israel — disrupting daily life, unsettling holiday events or derailing ongoing talks between Israel and the Lebanese government. 

Israeli officials believe Iran remains reluctant to enter into a broad and direct confrontation with Israel, according to the newspaper. That makes Lebanon, in their assessment, a potential arena through which Tehran could exert pressure without paying the price of direct military engagement.

Israeli security agencies believe Tehran could opt instead for limited operations or calibrated escalation by Hezbollah, allowing Iran to send messages to Israel and the United States without triggering an all-out war.

The key question, however, is how independent any new escalation in Lebanon would be from Tehran's decision-making. Israeli officials are trying to determine whether Hezbollah would act according to local battlefield calculations or whether any operation would form part of the wider confrontation between Washington and Tehran.

The question has taken on added urgency following the Israeli military's announcement that two explosive-laden drones had been launched toward its forces in the Ali al-Taher heights in southern Lebanon.

Israel has yet to establish whether the incident was directly connected to the ongoing confrontation in the region and its military operations against Hezbollah, or whether it could be an early sign of a broader escalation directed by Iran.

Israel is also concerned that any escalation could be intended to derail its negotiations with Lebanon.

According to Israel Hayom, Israeli security officials believe one possible objective of an Iranian move through Hezbollah would be to disrupt the political track between Beirut and Tel Aviv.

The concern comes as Washington seeks to revive Lebanese-Israeli negotiations, while disagreements remain over security arrangements in southern Lebanon, the mechanism for an Israeli withdrawal and the measures expected from the Lebanese state.

A new escalation could therefore reshuffle the negotiating landscape. Israel could use renewed violence to raise its demands or once again link any withdrawal to the security situation, while Lebanon could find itself back in a familiar position: negotiating under fire.

The possibility of escalation through Hezbollah is being discussed with Washington at both diplomatic and military levels, an Israeli official told Israel Hayom.

Close cooperation and coordination with the United States would be a key element of any Israeli response, the official said.

That coordination takes on added importance because of the broader confrontation between Washington and Tehran. A major Israeli operation in Lebanon could quickly become intertwined with the wider U.S.-Iran conflict, potentially turning a localized confrontation into a regional one.

Israel's response would therefore depend not only on the scale of any Hezbollah operation, but also on who Israeli officials believe ordered it.

Tel Aviv could decide to treat Hezbollah as the direct perpetrator and confine its response to the group. Alternatively, if it concludes that Tehran was behind the operation, Israel could seek to hold Iran responsible.

According to Israel Hayom, Israel is already considering its options should the escalation scenario materialize.

One question facing the Israeli security establishment is whether a response should be limited to Hezbollah positions, extend to Beirut's southern suburbs, or go further and target Iran itself on the assumption that Tehran is directing the escalation.

The fact that such scenarios are being considered underscores how closely Israel now links the Lebanese arena to its confrontation with Iran.

Under this logic, an operation in southern Lebanon would not necessarily remain a localized response to Hezbollah. It could instead be viewed as one component of a wider regional confrontation, increasing the risk that violence could spread from one theater to another.

Israel Hayom has also linked the Israeli assessments to Iran's worsening economic situation.

The newspaper reported that intensified U.S. economic pressure had contributed to a record decline in the value of the Iranian rial, which had fallen to around 2.2 million rials per dollar, while prices of basic goods were rising and purchasing power was deteriorating.

The Israeli assessment is based on the premise that mounting domestic pressure could encourage Iran's leadership to make greater use of its regional allies and leverage in an effort to relieve pressure at home or redirect the confrontation elsewhere.

But the link between Iran's economic crisis and a decision to activate Hezbollah remains an Israeli hypothesis. There are no independent indications establishing that a deterioration in Iran's domestic economic situation would automatically lead to escalation along the Lebanese front.

The security concerns coincide with Washington's efforts to tighten economic pressure on Iran.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said Washington is considering expanding measures against countries and companies linked to Tehran, including those involved in aviation, maritime activities and digital assets.

Israel Hayom also quoted a diplomatic official as saying the U.S. Treasury Department was working to identify financial companies and banks that had helped Iran circumvent sanctions, with the aim of imposing measures against them and cutting them off from the U.S. financial system.

The additional pressure complicates Tehran's calculations, while simultaneously increasing Israeli concerns that Iran could seek to retaliate through regional arenas that would allow it to avoid direct confrontation with either the United States or Israel.

Taken together, the assessments reported by Israel Hayom point to a growing Israeli tendency to interpret any Hezbollah activity in the coming weeks through the broader prism of the confrontation with Iran,  even before evidence emerges that any escalation was actually ordered by Tehran.

That approach carries particular risks for Lebanon. Any incident along the Lebanese front could be interpreted as part of a wider regional confrontation, potentially prompting a stronger Israeli response and placing the diplomatic process in jeopardy.

The question is therefore no longer simply whether Hezbollah will escalate, but how Israel will interpret whatever happens on the ground.

If Tel Aviv begins treating Hezbollah operations as the direct implementation of an Iranian decision, the room for containing individual incidents will narrow. Retaliation could then spread from southern Lebanon to Beirut's southern suburbs and potentially beyond.