Hezbollah is reluctant to join a renewed war between Iran and the United States, despite Tehran’s expectation that hostilities could resume, according to a source directly involved in Lebanese-Israeli negotiations who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat. The source said the group had been urged to stay out of any new confrontation, warning that its involvement could expose Lebanon to devastating consequences.

The assessment comes as international envoys press Lebanon to remain neutral in any renewed regional conflict and the government considers referring an explosives seizure on the Dahr al-Baydar road to the Judicial Council.

The source said Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri had conveyed the warnings to Hezbollah, which he described as his political “younger brother.” Hezbollah is not currently planning to enter a renewed confrontation, the source said, but could be forced to intervene under pressure from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The central question is whether Hezbollah would remain on the sidelines if fighting between Tehran and Washington resumes, particularly if Israel joins the conflict in support of the United States.

Iran Expects War to Resume but Says It Does Not Need Hezbollah’s Help

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh predicted a renewed war between Iran and the United States during a meeting with lawmakers affiliated with Hezbollah and the Amal Movement during a visit to Beirut, according to the source.

Khatibzadeh reportedly said the prospect of renewed hostilities was considerably greater than the chances of mediation succeeding in restoring U.S.-Iranian dialogue. He referred to mediation efforts by Pakistan, Qatar and Oman but suggested they were unlikely to prevent another confrontation.

Iran was keeping its options open to retaliate against attacks, Khatibzadeh reportedly told the lawmakers, adding that Tehran would not remain silent if Israel intervened in support of Washington.

However, he stressed that Iran was not asking its Lebanese allies to intervene on its behalf.

“You are not required to intervene to help us. We have enough strength and resilience to defend our land against aggression on our own,” he reportedly told the lawmakers.

Khatibzadeh also said Iran would not accept an end to the war and a consolidated ceasefire unless Lebanon was included and the provisions of the Iranian-American memorandum of understanding were implemented. His remarks appeared to link the Lebanese negotiating track to the broader negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

He added that Iranian experts were working around the clock to develop and strengthen the country’s defensive capabilities. Khatibzadeh predicted that Washington would be surprised not only by Iran’s ability to withstand attacks but also by its response, which he said would include strikes against U.S. targets.

U.S., Qatar and France Urge Lebanon to Stay Out

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was the first to contact President Joseph Aoun, urging him to keep Lebanon out of any renewed war and prevent Hezbollah from joining Iran’s side, the source said. Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot subsequently conveyed similar messages.

The envoys were concerned that Hezbollah’s intervention could prompt Israel to expand its security zone in Lebanon, potentially crossing the red lines Washington has drawn to keep Beirut, its southern suburbs and Rafic Hariri International Airport out of the target zone.

The source said Berri had informed Hezbollah of these warnings.

During his visit to Lebanon, the Qatari prime minister also reportedly met privately with Mohammed Raad, head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, Loyalty to the Resistance. Raad expressed the group’s openness and flexibility and indicated that it was not seeking escalation, according to the source.

Hezbollah’s reported reluctance to intervene contrasts with its decision in March to fire six rockets at Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The attack violated a commitment Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem had made to Berri not to intervene in support of Iran.

The source said Hezbollah was unlikely to repeat that move. The group has since been forced to retreat north of the Litani River, particularly into towns that do not lie along the river’s southern bank.

Hezbollah would also struggle to secure political backing for another intervention. The source said the group lacked Berri’s political cover and warned that entering another war would impose enormous human and material costs on Lebanon, far exceeding those incurred when Hezbollah intervened in support of Gaza and Iran.

The group would also face difficulties explaining a renewed intervention to its own support base, given the imbalance in military power, its loss of established rules of engagement and its limited ability to absorb another wave of displacement.

Israel Threatens to Expand Security Zone

Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has threatened to expand Israel’s security zone to include areas north of the Litani River and Nabatiyeh, ruling out an Israeli withdrawal unless Hezbollah is disarmed.

The source said the threat was intended in part as a message to the Lebanese-Israeli military meeting taking place under U.S. auspices in Florida. Israel was signaling that it was unwilling to provide the technical and logistical arrangements needed to expand the proposed “pilot zone” or break the deadlock over a framework agreement intended to be implemented in stages.

The source said a breakthrough would likely require Washington to intervene and pressure Israel to accommodate at least some of the Lebanese military delegation’s demands. Without such intervention, the negotiations risk reaching a dead end.

Katz’s criticism of the Lebanese army, which he accused of failing to disarm Hezbollah, also reflected Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s unwillingness to show flexibility in responding to Lebanon’s demands to advance the framework agreement, the source added.

Netanyahu is campaigning to secure a parliamentary majority in the upcoming Knesset elections and return to the premiership. The source did not rule out the possibility that he could expand the security zone if he concluded that doing so was necessary to improve his chances of defeating his political rivals.

Such a move, however, could further complicate efforts to advance the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations.

Explosives Case Adds to Political Tensions

The explosives seizure on the Dahr al-Baydar road has added another layer of tension as Lebanon weighs the risks of a possible regional war.

The Lebanese government is considering placing the case on the agenda of a Cabinet session chaired by Aoun, with a view to referring it to the Judicial Council.

According to the source, Hezbollah lawmaker Ibrahim al-Moussawi threatened that the streets could erupt if pressure mounted on the group following the seizure of the explosives-laden truck.

The driver and his companion reportedly told investigators that the explosives were intended for a Hezbollah official known as Dhu al-Fiqar and had been sent by a person identified as Sajed.

The source questioned the rationale behind threatening street mobilization over the case and whether Hezbollah could bear the consequences of such a move. He also raised the question of how Berri would respond, given his repeated calls to preserve civil peace, protect domestic stability and avoid actions that could inflame tensions or deepen divisions among Lebanese.