Analysis from a humanitarian group working in Lebanon forecasts two scenarios in its report on the Hezbollah-Israel conflict, both predicting a severe economic contraction in Lebanon by early 2025.

Mercy Corps’ Lebanon Crisis Analysis Team says Israel’s continued strikes on suspected Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, without blocking key infrastructure, will still bring severe economic and humanitarian risks.

Lebanon’s economy could contract by 12.81%, or $2.305 billion by January 2025, with impacts hitting agriculture, manufacturing, and services hard in the South and Bekaa Valley.

Agriculture in South Lebanon, which drives 80% of its economy, may come to a halt, while factories face shutdowns, the report says. “The Bekaa Valley, responsible for 2% of national GDP, will see similar disruptions, with 70% of farmland under threat and many Syrian laborers fleeing,” it adds.

The service sector, particularly tourism, stands to lose $1.256 billion, potentially crippling a vital part of the economy.

If Israel imposes a stricter blockade and expands bombings to key infrastructure, Lebanon’s economic loss could rise to 21.9% of GDP, or $3.938 billion, according to the report.

Over 1.5 million people could be displaced, with political and intercommunal tensions intensifying as Shiites flee to diverse religious regions that are majority Christian, Druze or Sunni, the report adds.

Already, 1.2 million people have been displaced from villages in southern and eastern Lebanon as well as Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Lebanon, already enduring a five-year economic crisis marked by a severe currency collapse, had just begun showing signs of recovery before the war erupted.