Kataeb Party leader Samy Gemayel said Lebanon is approaching a critical turning point as Hezbollah faces what he called an unavoidable choice: surrender its weapons to the state and enter political life, or hold onto its arsenal and push the country toward a new war.

In an interview with Radio Middle East in Montreal, Gemayel said Hezbollah may continue trying to “turn down the heat,” but cannot do so indefinitely.

“In the end the group has two options: either accept handing its weapons over to the state and engaging in political life, or keep its arsenal and drag the country into war,” he said. “Within a year, Lebanon will have entered a new phase. Hezbollah cannot continue to posture. Either it accepts the state’s terms or it exposes itself and Lebanon to a blow.”

He warned that Lebanon risks a “Gaza-like scenario” if militias remain entrenched.

“What could push Lebanon toward Gaza is militia intransigence,” he said. “What could save Lebanon is the state’s ability to restore its authority and sovereignty across the entire country and put an end to militias.”

From that point of view, Gemayel argued, negotiations with Israel are unavoidable.

“What matters is that negotiations take place. I don’t care whether they are direct or indirect,” he said. “What matters is holding them and sparing this country further tragedy and war, because this war is not balanced.”

He added that talks must include four core files: border demarcation, refugees, detainees, and Israel’s violations of Lebanese sovereignty. “For Lebanon, negotiations are the only path to a settlement under U.S. auspices. If anyone can deter Israel and offer Lebanon guarantees, it is the United States.”

Electoral Law, Expatriate Rights, and Parliamentary Obstruction

Gemayel stressed that the Kataeb parliamentary bloc was the only one to vote against the electoral law, insisting the party bears “no responsibility for the current legislation.” He recalled that Kataeb proposed abolishing the six expatriate seats back in 2018, “but all political forces were satisfied with the law.

"No one supported us. We were the only opposition, while everyone accused us of populism.”

Today, he said, the priority is reforming the law so Lebanese abroad can vote for all 128 MPs and help steer the country’s direction. For that reason, he traveled to Canada just days before voter registration closes.

“Everyone must register without fear,” he urged. “In the worst-case scenario, their names will be listed on the electoral rolls in Lebanon, and if expatriate voting does not take place, they can still vote in Beirut. No one can strip them of this right.”

But he warned that a political camp is working deliberately to block expatriate participation.

“Lebanon is experiencing a deliberate state of obstruction by a camp that does not want expatriates to vote,” he said, adding that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri bears “primary responsibility” for stalling amendments sent by the government.

Asked whether elections might be postponed, Gemayel said nothing can be ruled out.

“In Lebanon, anything is possible as long as we have a deviant militia presence and people willing to sacrifice the country for political gains,” he said. “Weapons are still present, the battle to restore sovereignty continues, election dates are not respected, and constitutional procedures are ignored.”

“It is impossible to build a rule-of-law state,” he added, “while militias operate outside state authority.”

Gemayel devoted a significant part of the interview to Lebanese expatriate voters, describing them as essential to political change. He noted that expatriates shifted the outcome of more than a quarter of Parliament in the 2022 elections.

“130,000 votes changed the results for more than 36 MPs,” he pointed out.

He urged expatriate youth to shoulder what he called a minimal democratic responsibility compared to their compatriots living in Lebanon.

“People in Lebanon struggle daily against violations, chaos, lawlessness, theft of their savings, militias, weapons, wars, and tragedy,” he said. “All we ask of expatriates is that they follow what is happening and vote once every four years. What does the expatriate lose if he sacrifices four hours to vote at the embassy?”

He reminded voters that not all political forces share responsibility for the crisis.

“There are people like us who were in the opposition during the collapse,” he said. “We warned about the economic meltdown and the threat to deposits. We did our job fully.”

He urged diaspora communities to apply the same voting standards they use in Canada.

“Before municipal elections in Montreal, did you not examine the platforms of each candidate?” he asked. “In Lebanon, no one looks at the program. Politics is not like football teams. Whoever performs well gets your vote, and whoever makes mistakes is held accountable. Do not follow anyone blindly.”

“We are educated people,” he added. “We understand democracy. And as we practice it in Canada, we must also practice it in Lebanon.”

Airfare Costs, Depositors’ Funds, and Gold Reserves

Turning to economic matters, Gemayel said rising airfares must be addressed through a state strategy aimed at encouraging expatriates to return home. He criticized Middle East Airlines for prioritizing profit over accessibility.

“Reducing flights raises ticket prices, while the objective should be to increase flights and reduce prices,” he said, citing Turkey’s expansion of Istanbul Airport as an example of how lower fares can drive tourism and economic growth.

But the toughest economic challenge, he said, is resolving the fate of depositors’ funds.

“This is the biggest challenge and one that requires courage,” he said, accusing a powerful lobby of blocking accountability to avoid exposing names. He outlined a series of steps:

• A full audit of all bank and central bank accounts

• Identifying who transferred money abroad after 2019

• Reducing the financial gap: “Deposits were $75 billion. Only $12 billion remain. Nearly $60 billion were spent.”

• Eliminating illicit accounts belonging to “mafias, smugglers, and money launderers”

• Using Lebanon’s $35 billion in gold reserves as leverage for investment — “We must not sell them, but manage them correctly.”

“Whoever transferred money outside the country after 2019 must return it,” he insisted.

Government Performance, International Ties, and Long-Term Recovery

Gemayel said Lebanon has seen meaningful change since the election of President Joseph Aoun and the formation of the government led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.

“The state has restored good relations with the international community, Arab countries, and the Americans,” he said. “Support has returned.”

But he cautioned that Lebanon’s collapse took decades, and recovery will not be quick.

“We cannot rebuild Lebanon in six months,” he said. “We are at the bottom of the well, buried there for 35 years while Hezbollah and Iran control the state and its institutions.”

He pointed to progress in the justice sector, including judicial appointments and a draft law on judicial independence submitted to Parliament.

“We hope people give us more confidence so we can accomplish more and fight for these reforms,” he said.