Lebanon is bracing for what could be a pivotal political moment, as the Cabinet is set to convene Tuesday at Baabda Palace under the chairmanship of President Joseph Aoun. Far from a routine session, the upcoming meeting is expected to mark a turning point in the country's political landscape, with the most sensitive and contentious issue—illegal arms, particularly those held by Hezbollah—officially placed on the table for discussion.

A Historic Challenge to Hezbollah’s Arsenal

For the first time, a Lebanese government meeting will focus on a comprehensive plan to collect illegal weapons, with a clear timeline to disarm all non-state actors. At the heart of the plan is a bold goal: the Lebanese state must reclaim its exclusive authority over the use of force. The move signals a major shift in the national discourse, reflecting a growing consensus among Lebanon’s political leadership that the balance of power can no longer tolerate parallel weapons outside the framework of state institutions.

Sources say the plan outlines a phased disarmament process to be implemented over five months and hinges on two components: internal dialogue and institutional pressure. While the discussion will be preliminary on Tuesday, the mere inclusion of this issue on the Cabinet’s agenda represents a rupture with the decades-old, post-war power dynamics that normalized Hezbollah’s military role under the banner of “resistance,” and allowed parallel armed structures to operate outside the authority of the state.

Hezbollah’s Allies Signal Discomfort

The reaction from the Shiite Hezbollah-Amal duo has been cautious but telling. According to ministerial sources, Ministers Mohammad Haydar and Yassine Jaber are expected to skip the session, citing prior commitments abroad. However, political analysts view the absences as a calibrated protest, meant to signal disapproval without directly confronting the initiative.

In a notable contrast, Labor Minister Mustafa Bayram, who is also affiliated with the same political camp, is reportedly attempting to shorten his overseas trip in order to attend the session. This suggests internal disagreement among Hezbollah's allies about how to engage with the state-led push.

Aoun Draws a Line: No Weapons Outside State Authority

President Joseph Aoun has left little room for ambiguity. In a recent speech marking Army Day, he laid out a seven-point roadmap, with one central message: all arms must be placed under the state’s control. It was the clearest and most forceful disarmament call to come from a Lebanese president since the end of the civil war.

Aoun’s stance has effectively placed Hezbollah in front of a stark choice: join the process of state-building or risk being cast as a destabilizing force operating beyond the law. For many observers, this is a turning point in Lebanon’s political history.

A Cabinet Session Unlike Any Other

While the Cabinet’s agenda includes several procedural items related to ministerial work, these are widely viewed as secondary. The main focus is the issue of Hezbollah’s arms. The session is being described by political insiders as a litmus test: it would either serve as a genuine step toward reclaiming state authority or yet another capitulation to the enduring power of Hezbollah’s weapons.

Can the State Deliver?

For many Lebanese, the question is no longer whether the state wants to act, but whether it is capable of doing so. 

The stakes are high. Tuesday’s session could be the beginning of a new national trajectory, or a painful confirmation of paralysis.

Lebanese citizens are watching closely. As one political source put it: “All political equations will be put to the test. The biggest question remains: will the state return, or will its collapse be sealed?”