With tensions escalating between Israel and Hezbollah along the southern Lebanese border, the likelihood of a large-scale military operation has significantly increased. As both sides brace for potential conflict, diplomatic efforts are reportedly shifting focus from de-escalation to preparing for the aftermath of a possible war.

Lebanese official sources told Al-Arabiya.net and Al-Hadath.net that ongoing diplomatic discussions are not centered on preventing the current escalation but rather on managing the situation after a potential conflict.

“The ongoing diplomatic efforts aim to prepare for the post-war phase rather than prevent the escalation,” the sources said.

These officials emphasized that any lasting solution for southern Lebanon will likely be tied to the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which was passed in 2006 to end hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. However, they noted that additional mechanisms would be necessary to monitor and enforce the resolution this time around.

“Creating a system to monitor its enforcement is the current focus,” the sources were quoted as saying. 

In the midst of these tensions, U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein recently visited Israel to push for a ceasefire agreement. Lebanese sources noted that border demarcation has been under discussion for some time, but Hochstein’s visit primarily focused on a U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal, which also included a truce and a prisoner exchange plan put forward by U.S. President Joe Biden.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, the situation remains precarious, with Israeli officials preparing for the possibility of ground operations.

In an interview with Al-Arabiya.net and Al-Hadath.net, Retired Lebanese Brigadier General and former MP Wehbe Qatisha stated that any Israeli ground operation would likely span the entire length of the border with Lebanon, targeting the eastern, western, and central sectors.

He explained that such an incursion would focus on heavily damaged, uninhabited villages within 5 to 10 kilometers of the Lebanese border. The Israeli strategy, he suggested, would involve using the withdrawal from these villages as leverage to facilitate the return of settlers to the Galilee region, conditional upon a halt to Hezbollah’s rocket and drone attacks.

However, Qatisha stressed that this scenario remains unlikely, largely due to U.S. pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid escalation and accept President Biden’s ceasefire proposal.

While a full-scale ground invasion may be off the table for now, Qatisha warned that Israeli airstrikes and artillery bombardment of southern Lebanese villages are expected to intensify and expand further into Lebanon’s interior.

Meanwhile, sources close to Hezbollah indicated that the group is fully prepared for any Israeli ground operation, but cautioned that such an assault would not be an easy endeavor for Israel. Speaking to Al-Arabiya.net and Al-Hadath.net, these sources emphasized that an Israeli ground operation would not be a “walk in the park” and would come at a very high cost.

“Israel knows there are many obstacles to a ground invasion, starting within Israel itself and extending to the southern battlefield,” the Hezbollah sources said.

The sources also reaffirmed Hezbollah’s readiness for any scenario, saying the group is prepared to respond to any adverse developments. While Hezbollah has no issue with implementing UN Resolution 1701, they argue that the onus is on Israel to cease its violations of Lebanese airspace and its occupation of the Kfar Shouba hills and Shebaa Farms.

As the situation on the ground remains volatile, the risk of escalation continues to loom large, with both sides preparing for what could be a costly and prolonged conflict.