Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire in late November 2024 to end more than a year of fighting. The ceasefire came after Israel launched a ground operation in Lebanon on October 1 and targeted Hezbollah leaders and missile depots across Lebanon. The ceasefire’s initial period was sixty days, beginning on November 27, 2025. Israel is supposed to withdraw from southern Lebanon by the end of the sixty days, and the Lebanese army is supposed to deploy to the border area, preventing Hezbollah’s return.

The ceasefire deal is supposed to lead to the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The resolution hasn’t been implemented since the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. Instead, Hezbollah increased its arsenal in Lebanon and built up its forces near the Israeli border. On October 8, 2023, following the Hamas attack a day earlier on Israel, Hezbollah began attacks on Israel. Throughout 2024, Hezbollah and Israel traded fire, with Hezbollah launching thousands of rockets and drone attacks on Israel. By August, Israeli authorities estimated 7,500 rockets and 200 drone attacks had occurred.

The two months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah that began with Israel announcing Operation Northern Arrows on September 23 was the heaviest fighting since the 2006 war. Israel carried out hundreds of airstrikes in Beirut and the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon and killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and one of his likely successors. 

Now, as the ceasefire’s sixty days are about to end, Israel and Hezbollah have to decide if they will return to fighting. Israel’s Ynet reported on January 22 that while the Israel Defense Forces are expected to withdraw from Lebanon, there are delays that may occur. Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure remains in southern Lebanon. Israeli foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar met with the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, and said he “emphasized that Israel is committed to implementing the ceasefire agreement, but will not compromise on its security. There is an opportunity for Lebanon to break free from the Iranian occupation and build a better future.”

Meanwhile, on the border with Lebanon, the IDF’s 210th Division carried out operations in the disputed area around Mount Dov. According to Israel National News, the raid “located and confiscated a large number of weapons, including anti-tank launchers, rocket launchers, machine guns, scopes, and missiles aimed at Israeli territory.”

As the Israeli military continues to operate near the border, Lebanon’s new government has been trying to find its footing over the last month. Joseph Aoun, a former head of the Lebanese Armed Forces, was elected president on January 9. Lebanon also has a new Prime Minister, Nawaf Salam, a former Lebanese envoy to the UN. Together, the new Lebanese leaders are facing immediate challenges trying to implement the ceasefire and deploy Lebanon’s army to areas near Israel’s border.

On January 22, Lebanese media reported that the Lebanese army had asked citizens not to approach areas where Israeli forces were withdrawing from. The report from Lebanon indicated that the Lebanese army deployed in Kfar Shouba in southern Lebanon.

The challenge in Lebanon is clear. While Hezbollah suffered losses in the war with Israel, and it has not been prominent since the ceasefire, the group is still powerful. It returned to areas in southern Lebanon after the IDF withdrew. This is what happened after the Israeli withdrawal in 2000 when Israel ended eighteen years of fighting in Lebanon that began with the 1982 invasion, which was initially intended to neutralize Palestinian armed groups. After the thirty-four-day 2006 war, the IDF also withdrew. Hezbollah celebrated the 2000 and 2006 withdrawals as victories.

Iran’s role in backing Hezbollah has suffered a setback in recent months. The fall of the Assad regime on December 8 and its replacement by a government that is more hostile to Tehran means that Iran can no longer easily traffic weapons via Syria to Hezbollah. Hezbollah has lost a key partner now that the Assad regime is no more. Iran will have to find other ways to help Hezbollah replenish its arsenal. Some of this can be accomplished locally, but Iran’s backing is key.

Iran’s Mohammed Javad Zarif, who now serves as Iran’s vice-president for strategic affairs, said at Davos on January 22 that “resistance” to Israel will continue. He denied that Iran controls proxy groups such as Hezbollah. His wider point was that no matter what happens, resistance will continue to oppose Israel in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.

Israel now has a ceasefire on two fronts. The Lebanon ceasefire lasted for two months, and the ceasefire with Hamas began on January 19. The new Trump administration appears to want both these to continue. The Israeli government appears also to want to shift focus to fighting terrorist groups in the West Bank. On January 21, the IDF launched a new operation called “Iron Wall,” which Israel’s prime minister and defense minister both spotlighted in comments. Israeli defense minister Israel Katz said that the operation would change the security situation in the West Bank. “We will not allow the arms of the Iranian octopus and radical Sunni Islam to endanger the lives of the settlers and establish a terrorist front in the east against the State of Israel. We will strike the arms of the octopus with force until they are severed,” he said last Wednesday.

It appears to be in Israel’s interests to maintain the ceasefire in Lebanon. In addition, the Trump administration appears to want to see these ceasefires continue, paving the way for more diplomacy and possible normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia or other initiatives. The challenge is getting the new Lebanese government on board to actually deploy the Lebanese army in southern Lebanon and not enable Hezbollah to return to various villages and positions near the border quietly. The fall of the Syrian regime, the new Lebanese government, the Gaza ceasefire, and the new Trump administration all appear to provide the possibility that the Lebanon ceasefire will survive after its first sixty days. For that to happen, Israel will have to decide whether Hezbollah, in its current debilitated form, continues to constitute a threat in southern Lebanon or if the group may be kept in check in the near term.