As the Israel-Gaza war entered its second year, the conflict had not only prolonged but also significantly expanded, with mounting tensions reverberating across the region.

Israel now finds itself fighting on two fronts: against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon while engaging in an increasingly volatile confrontation with Iran, a backer of both militant groups. The conflict has transformed into a destructive cycle of violence, with no end in sight.

Though the war in Gaza continues, the focus of the heaviest fighting has recently shifted to southern Lebanon.

For hundreds of thousands of Lebanese, life changed dramatically last month when a simmering border conflict between Hezbollah and Israel erupted into full-scale war. In two weeks, over 1,000 people have been killed, and some 1.2 million – nearly 20 percent of the population – have been displaced following Israel’s intensive bombing campaign. Israeli airstrikes have devastated entire neighborhoods and residential blocks in the southern suburbs of Beirut, as well as various towns and villages in southern Lebanon.

It all started on October 8, when Hezbollah entered the fray to support its ally Hamas after Israel launched a retaliatory assault in response to Hamas’ October 7 attacks, which claimed the lives of 1,200 Israelis and saw 250 others kidnapped. Since then, more than 41,000 Palestinians – many of whom are civilians and children – have been killed in the ensuing war, according to health officials. Gaza’s essential infrastructure has been decimated, and the everyday lives of Palestinians have been destroyed.

Yesterday, Israel began a second year of war by expanding its ground invasion of southern Lebanon and said it had killed the presumed successor to Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, following his assassination.

De-escalation through escalation

An Israeli military spokesperson reported that more than 3,000 rockets had been fired from Lebanon into Israel this October, but air defenses had intercepted many, minimizing casualties and damage.

On Tuesday, Haifa, the northern port city, was again a target, with reports of missile debris damaging buildings. Israel’s military said it had struck the launchers that fired the missiles at Haifa.

Hezbollah has remained defiant despite three weeks of intense Israeli strikes and other operations. The group’s current strategy appears to be one of escalating the conflict to force a de-escalation. It aims to convey that, despite recent setbacks, its command and control structure remains intact. In many ways, Hezbollah’s deterrence capabilities have been diminished, and the group is now seeking to regain leverage by applying military pressure on Israel.

While Israel has dealt Hezbollah severe blows, dismantling the group’s attack infrastructure will be extremely difficult without engaging in protracted and bloody underground warfare, said Randa Slim, senior fellow and director of the Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.

“It is also nearly impossible for Israel to decimate Hezbollah’s rank and file. While it may succeed in short-term leadership decapitation, movements like Hezbollah are resilient and can regenerate new leadership quickly,” she told Al Arabiya English.

On the battlefield, Hezbollah boasts unparalleled experience as a guerrilla force, capable of turning an Israeli ground invasion into a costly engagement. In the 2006 war with Israel, Hezbollah fighters operated from tunnels and fortified positions, inflicting severe military blows on Israel.

While Hezbollah’s fighters are seasoned in ground warfare, enabling them to mount a fierce resistance to Israel’s invasion, the group faces immense strain.

Israel has invaded Lebanon on multiple occasions, including in a 1982 offensive sparked by tit-for-tat border fire during which Israeli forces entered Beirut and which led to the creation of Hezbollah.

Hezbollah’s flexibility amid Israel’s military push

On the political front, Hezbollah is signaling a newfound flexibility. In comments broadcast on Tuesday, Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Naim Qassem, expressed support for efforts to secure a ceasefire in Lebanon, omitting, for the first time, any reference to a Gaza truce as a precondition for halting the group’s attacks on Israel.

As Western powers push for a diplomatic resolution, fearing broader destabilization in the oil-producing Middle East, Israel remains firm in rejecting international calls for a ceasefire.

Israel is emboldened by the backing of its key ally, the US, which has given it a green light to continue targeting and weakening Hezbollah.

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in Tuesday’s press briefing, “Yes, we do support Israel launching these incursions [into Lebanon] to degrade Hezbollah’s infrastructure.”

This comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emphasized the need for a strategic shift in the region, speaking of “changing the balance of power” and “transforming the security reality.”

“With his recent tactical successes, Netanyahu is looking for decisive military wins that would not only allow Israeli residents to return to their homes in the north, but also neutralize threats from Hezbollah and Iran for the longer term,” said Dalia Dassa Kaye, senior fellow at the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations.

Political solution vs. military means

Israel’s stated goal of its air and ground campaign in Lebanon is to make its northern areas safe from Hezbollah rocket fire and allow thousands of displaced residents to return.

Analysts contend that similar to the situation in Gaza, while the Israeli military may achieve tactical victories in Lebanon, they are not structured to win the war, at least not through military means.

“I believe Israel can accomplish its objectives of preventing Hamas from projecting power into Israel for several years via military action. Also, it can deter Hezbollah from ‘normalizing’ rocket and missile attacks against Israel. However, without a political solution, the situation in both Gaza and Lebanon will remain unstable,” David Des Roches, associate professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Security Studies, told Al Arabiya English.

“Israel can enhance its efforts to dismantle Iran’s capabilities for supplying advanced missiles and other weaponry to its proxy groups,” Des Roches added. “But, unless the Lebanese government re-establishes sovereignty over southern Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority secures effective control over Gaza, the specter of insurgency will persist.”

Netanyahu urged the Lebanese people in a video address yesterday to “free themselves from Hezbollah” or face “the abyss of a long war that will lead to destruction and suffering as we see in Gaza.”

Many in Lebanon interpreted his remarks as a newly articulated goal of the war, one that could incite civil strife and reshape the political landscape in the country.

Conflict unbound

As the Gaza war grinds on, avoiding regional spillover across multiple arenas has become challenging, and that’s what is happening today. Israel and Iran are now engaged in direct military conflict, fueling a dangerous cycle of strikes and counter-strikes.

“This is no longer a shadow war,” said Kaye. “Israel feels it has the upper hand because of its success in degrading Hezbollah. However, underestimating Hezbollah’s remaining capabilities, or Iran’s for that matter, is unwise. As weak as Iran may be, its missile capabilities remain significant, and like Israel, Iran has demonstrated a willingness to take greater risks as the war escalates. In short, the Israel-Iran conflict is set to worsen. The US and its Arab partners are striving to prevent another war front, but containing the conflict is becoming difficult as red lines are continuously crossed.”

The prospect of a prolonged conflict seems inevitable. Many analysts warn that Israel’s current campaign risks devolving into a scenario, where tactical victories do not translate into strategic success. Instead, the war could become a drawn-out conflict, with no clear resolution in sight.

“Netanyahu’s targets in the war have shifted from pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River to driving it out of Lebanon – an aim that is ultimately unattainable,” noted Slim. “A ceasefire would likely stem from a combination of Israel’s failure to meet its military objectives and mounting US pressure on both Israel and Lebanon to seek a diplomatic resolution. So far, however, I have yet to see the US administration applying such pressure on the Israeli government.”