A senior Western diplomat in Beirut urged regional states to recognize the gravity of the moment the Middle East is navigating in order to prevent the continuation of the wars that erupted after the October 7 attacks in Gaza.

The diplomat, who is closely involved in Western contacts with Lebanon, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the region should “take advantage of President Donald Trump’s desire to play the role of peacemaker, even if moving forward with the American proposals appears difficult at times.”

The envoy pointed to what they described as “the disastrous outcome of allowing armed factions to control the decisions of capitals.”

He listed them as follows:

Hamas acted alone in launching the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, and the outcome was catastrophic, not only for Gaza but also for the West Bank, which is facing constant Israeli attempts to undermine its stability.

Hezbollah in Lebanon acted unilaterally and joined the flood. The result is what we see today.

Israel has seized positions inside Lebanon and has effectively established a security belt inside Lebanese territory, something it would not have been able to do if decisions were in the hands of the country’s legitimate authorities.

The Bashar al-Assad government paid the price for allowing Iran backed factions to operate on its soil, and the result was its collapse.

Syria’s new president, Ahmed al Sharaa, has learned the lesson that the world has grown weary of the era of factions and wants to deal only with states capable of making their decisions within their institutions.

The diplomat said the coming weeks “could be decisive for Lebanon,” noting that “the world’s ability to spare Lebanon a new Israeli attack depends on the ability of the Lebanese authorities to prove they are the sole decision maker in matters of war and peace, without any faction holding decision making power or veto power.”

They expressed hope that “the moderate current within Lebanon’s Shia community will prevail so that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri can play a rescue role for his community and for Lebanon as a whole.”

They warned that “keeping the Lebanese state without a clear and firm decision regarding the monopoly of weapons could expose Lebanon to serious dangers.”

They noted that “the shift from the era of factions to the era of states is a task facing not only Lebanon but also Baghdad, especially given the continuing deep rift between Iran and the West.”

They said Tehran “must conclude that a new phase has begun in the region, one defined by states rather than factions, and that clinging to the old policy will only lead to more confrontations that Iran itself will not be spared.”

Iraq, which is now seeking a new government, “needs to thoroughly examine the shifts that have taken place in the region and absorb what happened in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. Syria is without the Assad government, Lebanese Hezbollah is without Hassan Nasrallah, and Iran itself has lost many of its generals and scientists after already losing Qassem Soleimani,” the commander of the Quds Force, the external operations arm of the Revolutionary Guard.

The diplomat said that in the coming phase Iraq must “prioritize state logic over factional logic and adopt rational choices in both domestic and foreign relations.”

They said that strengthening moderation and state institutions within the Coordination Framework would spare Iraq crises it does not need, especially if predictions prove true that the region is moving toward a new military round between Israel and Iran, one the Trump administration will find difficult to stay out of.

They added that “Iraq would be fortunate if the government formation process results in sending a message to the world that Iraq will focus on rebuilding itself and will not be drawn into bloc politics or confrontational rhetoric regionally or internationally.”

They called on political leaders in Baghdad and Beirut to “look to the experience of President al-Sharaa, who managed quickly to bring his country out of isolation after realizing that Syria had no path except the path of the state, even though he himself came from the world of factions.”