Lebanon’s political and security landscape is entering a dangerous new phase, with U.S. officials warning that the informal “slow-burn” status quo the region has relied on for months is rapidly deteriorating, according to multiple sources familiar with internal U.S. State Department deliberations.

Mario Nawfal, an entrepreneur, media commentator, and host of the widely followed Twitter Spaces geopolitical discussions, reported that senior American officials now believe Israel is gaining broad international backing for a limited but “brutal” air campaign aimed at degrading what remains of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. According to the sources he cited, Israeli strikes are expected to intensify as early as the weeks following the Pope’s visit to Beirut, with air raids projected to increase “ten-fold.”

"Over the next few weeks, shortly after the Pope’s visit, air raids are expected to increase at least 10-fold in intensity," Nawfal wrote, citing close and multiple sources from the U.S. State Department. "Central to the equation is very recent, and compelling intelligence that Hezbollah has successfully managed to stall Lebanese miliary inspection, disarmament, and an alarming pace of rebuilding armory, depot supplies, particularly in cheap-made but effective lethal drones."

At the heart of the escalation, U.S. officials say, is newly acquired intelligence indicating that Hezbollah has successfully stalled Lebanese Army inspection and disarmament efforts while accelerating the replenishment of weapons stockpiles, drone systems, depot supplies and other military assets. 

The tipping point, according to Nawfal’s reporting, came this week when the Trump administration abruptly canceled all scheduled meetings with Lebanese Army Commander Gen. Rodolphe Haykal just hours before he was set to travel to Washington. The Lebanese Embassy was forced to call off a formal reception in his honor, and American officials “essentially stopped talking to Lebanese leadership entirely.”

U.S. lawmakers publicly sharpened the tone. Senator Lindsey Graham blasted Haykal’s “weak, almost non-existent effort to disarm Hezbollah,” dismissing the Lebanese Armed Forces as “not a very good investment for America.” Senator Joni Ernst also accused Haykal of “shamefully directing blame at Israel” instead of confronting Hezbollah’s expanding arsenal.

Despite receiving what Washington considers “firsthand, alarming intelligence” about Hezbollah’s rapid armament, U.S. sources say Lebanese leaders, with the exception of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, have failed to grasp the urgency of the moment.

“Washington’s patience has officially run out,” one source said.

U.S. frustration is heightened by what officials describe as a near-historic opportunity for a breakthrough regional peace agreement. According to Nawfal, former White House adviser Jared Kushner has been quietly guiding a high-stakes diplomatic effort involving the United States, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Turkey aimed at expanding the Abraham Accords.

The groundwork, Americans believe, is stronger than ever before. Public opinion in both Israel and Lebanon has shifted in favor of stability; Lebanese economic desperation has made the promise of regional integration increasingly appealing; and U.S. allies have offered Beirut what one official described as “the deal of a lifetime” — unlimited support for the army and presidency, sweeping economic assistance, and a path toward resolving Lebanon’s frozen banking crisis.

But there is one condition: Lebanon must agree to enter direct, structured negotiations with Israel.

Iran, intent on preserving its influence in Lebanon, has been pressuring Hezbollah and allied Lebanese factions to reject any talks with Israel.

“Iran does not want resolution,” Nawfal wrote. “They want perpetual war and division because that’s how they maintain regional power.”

On the other side, Israeli far-right ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose support Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu relies on for political survival, are undermining diplomacy from within Israel. Nawfal cited Netanyahu’s unexpected visit to southern Syria, conducted without prior coordination, as a deliberate provocation at a time when Kushner and regional partners were struggling to hold a fragile negotiating framework together.

Syria’s new president, Sharaa, has so far maintained restraint despite repeated Israeli violations of Syrian sovereignty, honoring what U.S. officials describe as a personal commitment to former President Donald Trump, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to pursue economic opening and peace “at any cost.”

The United States, France, Gulf states and the United Nations are continuing to push Lebanon toward entering direct negotiations with Israel in hopes of avoiding a wider conflict. Quietly, even within Lebanon’s Shiite community, a “silent bloc” has emerged in favor of a peaceful settlement, U.S. sources told Nawfal.

But Tehran continues to veto moves toward dialogue, pressuring Hezbollah to reject any overtures.

Meanwhile, officials warn, Israel is preparing for a major escalation in Lebanon that could shatter months of delicate diplomatic progress.

“Nothing says ‘we’re serious about peace’ quite like preparing to bomb your neighbor while cutting off diplomatic communication,” Nawfal wrote.