Lebanon is facing a pivotal moment as U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagus arrives in Beirut this week, bearing what sources close to the White House describe as a “clear and decisive” message: the time for Lebanese hesitation is over, and a new era of hard choices is beginning.

According to sources who spoke to Al-Liwaa newspaper, Ortagus is expected to present Lebanese leaders with a stark ultimatum. The Trump administration, they say, is no longer willing to accept what it views as Lebanon’s evasive tactics, nor does it consider normalization with Israel to be a mere political option or a sovereign right. Instead, normalization is now seen as an implicit precondition for any economic aid or foreign investment flowing into the crisis-hit country.

“This is no longer about direct agreements or public treaties,” one source familiar with the matter said. “The U.S. expects clear, public signals from Beirut that it is aligning itself with the emerging regional order built around Israeli security and brokered in Washington.”

“No aid, no investments, no support of any kind will come to Lebanon unless the country sends unambiguous signs that it is embracing the new regional settlement,” the source added.

This realignment, formalized under the Abraham Accords and reportedly expanding with Syria’s indirect involvement, is being restructured with Israel’s security at its core. Washington is pressing ahead with its vision, and the expectation is that Lebanon must fall in line.

Any deviation from this path, sources warn, could have devastating consequences: the permanent loss of Shebaa Farms as a unifying national cause, the sidelining of the Palestinian refugee issue, a sharp decline in Arab and international support, and potentially most damaging of all, a collapse of financial and political stability. According to the sources, international donors and investors are already turning toward countries more flexible with U.S. terms.

The U.S. administration is said to have little appetite for delay, with expectations that Lebanon act before mid-2026 at the latest. Concrete political steps are being demanded, even if not in the form of official agreements.

Most strikingly, leaked details suggest a direct link is being drawn between the disputed Shebaa Farms and Hezbollah’s arsenal. According to the American view, if Shebaa Farms is classified as Syrian, not Lebanese, territory, the primary rationale for Hezbollah’s armed resistance evaporates. Under international frameworks, this would make disarmament both logical and necessary, the sources claim.

In return for Damascus formally relinquishing the occupied Golan Heights and acknowledging that Shebaa Farms belongs to Syria, Lebanon would find itself isolated and under heavy pressure to comply.

“This scenario leaves Lebanon with almost no room for maneuver,” the source said. “It forces the country to make a choice: either join this new axis—at the cost of politically and geographically sensitive concessions—or remain on the sidelines, risking isolation, collapse, and the gradual loss of its sovereign assets.”

The U.S. is not explicitly pushing for a traditional peace treaty with Israel, the sources note, but rather a public political commitment that would pave the way for strategic shifts in Lebanon’s internal power dynamics.

The proposed settlement includes four key demands:

1. An implicit relinquishment of Lebanon’s claim to Shebaa Farms, as a way to avoid formal normalization with Israel.

2. The complete disarmament of Hezbollah and the termination of its military role.

3. The dismantling of the political dominance of the Hezbollah-Amal alliance. Anti-Hezbollah factions have reportedly been told that the results of Lebanon’s recent municipal elections were “deeply concerning” and “unacceptable” to Western observers.

4. A freeze on all internal political files until the 2026 parliamentary elections, effectively pausing key domestic debates.

Taken together, these conditions point to a new phase in Lebanon’s modern history. According to the sources, the envisioned settlement would inevitably lead to the dissolution of Hezbollah’s military role and redefine Lebanon’s position in the Middle East as a subordinate player in a regional framework crafted in Washington and coordinated from Tel Aviv.