Ursula von der Leyen has been re-elected as president of the European Commission in a make-or-break vote on Thursday that represented the single greatest test of her political legacy, forged across a succession of crises that have rattled the bloc's foundations.

Following a grilling in the European Parliament, the incumbent received 401 votes in favour and 284 against, a large majority to support her second five-year term.

The comfortable result is a decisive backing of her stewardship and marks a significant turnaround from the last time she faced the hemicycle: back in 2019, she made it through with a record-breaking, razor-thin margin of just nine votes.

"The last five years have shown what we can do together," she said. "Let us do it again. Let us make the choice of strength. Let us make the choice of leadership."

The resolution caps intense days of closed-door negotiations that saw the 65-year-old German politician frantically meet with the Parliament's main groups – in some cases, several times – to secure as many endorsements as possible.

Although the three centrist groups – the European People's Party (EPP), the Socialists & Democrats (S&D) and the liberals of Renew Europe – had enough seats to re-appoint her, internal disagreements hinted at shaky arithmetic, forcing von der Leyen to reach out to the Greens and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) for additional support.

Her overture to the hard-right ECR, led by Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy and Poland's Law and Justice (PiS), proved controversial for progressive forces, who saw it as a threat to the centrist coalition. Von der Leyen sought to assuage these fears by promising "no structured cooperation" with Meloni's group and re-committing herself to the goals of the Green Deal, which her centre-right family has increasingly challenged.

The secret nature of the vote makes it impossible to ascertain who voted for and against her candidacy. But the speech delivered on Thursday morning, with several pointed references to climate action, suggests it was the Greens who acted as king-maker.

"We have secured commitments on the Green Deal, making the EU more socially fair and protecting democracy," the Greens said, confirming their support.

By contrast, the ECR group said a "large majority of national delegations" would move against the candidate. A representative from Meloni's Brother of Italy confirmed the premier's group had voted against the aspirant.

A plethora of promises

It was not just the Greens – all centrist groups got something out of von der Leyen.

Her address featured ideas clearly tailored to the Socialists, like a new Commissioner for housing and a roadmap for women's rights, and the Liberals, who demand member states respect the rule of law in exchange for receiving EU funds.

The EPP saw a great number of its pet projects included in von der Leyen's guidelines, such as a European Defence Fund, a three-fold increase in Frontex's personnel and an "SME and competitiveness check" to cut down red tape. Von der Leyen also pitched a new agenda to develop "comprehensive partnerships" with Mediterranean countries, code for EU-funded deals to curb irregular migration.

Her guidelines do not explicitly endorse the idea of offshoring asylum procedures, which the EPP featured in its campaign manifesto and remains vehemently opposed by progressives. The document, however, says the executive will "further reflect on new ways to counter irregular migration, while respecting international law and ensuring sustainable and fair solutions for the migrants themselves."

All in all, von der Leyen managed to strike a balance between legislative ambition and political realism, giving centrist parties something to champion without alienating them. She also excoriated Viktor Orbán's controversial "peace mission," which she described, to loud applause from the chamber, as a "plain appeasement mission".

"Europe cannot control dictators and demagogues across the world, but it can choose to protect its own democracy," von der Leyen told lawmakers.

"Europe cannot determine elections across the world, but it can choose to invest in the security and defence of its own continent. Europe cannot stop change, but it can choose to embrace it by investing in a new age of prosperity and improving our quality of life."

Rejecting EU leaders' preferred choice of candidate would have been unprecedented. Diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, have said it would constitute an "institutional crisis" with no easy way out due to a lack of credible alternatives.

The volatile global environment, including wars in Ukraine and Gaza, helped build her case as a continuity, safe-pair-of-hands president.

"We may certainly not agree on everything but we should all agree that Europe is stronger when we bridge our differences and join our forces," she told MEPs. "If you give me your trust, I will be honoured to turn all these actions into reality together with you."

Her next step will be to interview candidates for Commissioners, submitted by each member state, and decide the structure of her new executive. This process will be delicate, as many capitals are demanding high-profile portfolios for their picks.

Once the College is formed, it will face a confirmation vote in the Parliament later this year. If approved, the 27 Commissioners will take office and kick off their work.