The Syrian conflict, which erupted in 2011, has profoundly impacted Lebanon, reshaping its political, economic, and social fabric. Sharing a porous border with Syria, Lebanon has faced challenges, including a massive refugee influx, heightened political polarization, economic devastation, and security threats. These issues underscore Lebanon’s precarious position as a small, multi-sectarian state caught in regional turmoil and geopolitical rivalries.

Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria—aimed at securing supply routes, supporting the Assad regime, and projecting regional influence—has further entangled Lebanon in the conflict. The recent collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks a pivotal moment, necessitating a reassessment of Syrian refugees’ status and policies governing their stay in host countries. This development raises complex questions about the future of refugees, Lebanon’s stability, and the broader regional landscape.

The Refugee Question

Given the significant burden posed by hosting Syrian refugees, the collapse of Assad’s regime necessitates a comprehensive reevaluation of refugee status in Lebanon and beyond. Refugee status is granted to individuals unable to return to their home country due to a well-founded fear of persecution based on race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion.

With the regime change, the circumstances that prompted many Syrians to flee may have shifted. Host countries and the UNHCR must assess whether refugees still meet these criteria. This process involves evaluating each refugee’s situation to determine if returning to Syria poses safety risks and continuously observing Syria’s security and political environment to ensure returnees are not exposed to persecution.

The UNHCR upholds the principle that refugees can voluntarily return to their home country at their chosen time. With the regime change, some refugees may be more interested in returning because they perceive improved safety. However, refugees will require accurate and up-to-date information about conditions in Syria to make informed decisions.

Currently, the UNHCR does not organize return movements to Syria but supports those who voluntarily return. Recent developments may necessitate enhanced support for voluntary returnees, such as assistance with documentation, transportation, and reintegration programs. Additionally, coordination with the new Syrian authorities will be critical to ensuring safe and dignified returns.

For those who choose to stay, continued protection remains essential. Even with the regime’s fall, not all refugees may feel safe returning immediately. The UNHCR, in collaboration with Lebanese and Syrian authorities, must safeguard the rights of those opting to remain in Lebanon and closely monitor developments in Syria to guide future policies and support mechanisms.

A Nation Stretched to Its Limits

Lebanon hosts approximately 1.5 million Syrian refugees, a staggering number for a country of its size. This influx has strained public services, infrastructure, and societal cohesion. Recent developments, including reductions in international aid and increased repatriation efforts, have heightened tensions. Lebanese authorities have tightened legal frameworks governing refugees, with growing calls for deportations exacerbating societal divides. These measures reflect both economic strain and political polarization, underscoring the delicate balance Lebanon must strike between humanitarian obligations and internal stability.

The Syrian conflict has deepened Lebanon’s political divides, reinforcing the regional proxy dynamics of Iran and Saudi Arabia. Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria polarized Lebanon’s Sunni and Shia communities, with Sunni factions often sympathetic to the Syrian opposition. This polarization paralyzes Lebanon’s political system, as evidenced by recent leadership struggles and the country’s inability to form a unified government to address its mounting crises.

Security Challenges

The Syrian conflict has spilled over into Lebanon’s security landscape, with border regions witnessing periodic clashes. Extremist groups like ISIS once infiltrated Lebanon, prompting robust security operations to prevent further incursions. While these threats have diminished, new concerns have arisen, including cross-border smuggling and arms transfers. Recent military exercises and heightened border surveillance illustrate Lebanon’s ongoing struggle to maintain security amid regional instability.

Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria has left a lasting imprint on Lebanon. Domestically, its military and political dominance have fueled tensions, drawing criticism from factions opposed to its regional interventions. Internationally, its actions have strained Lebanon’s relations with Gulf countries, leading to trade restrictions and reduced investment. Hezbollah’s dual role as a militant group and political actor complicates Lebanon’s efforts to adopt a neutral stance in regional conflicts.

Economic Ripples

Lebanon’s economic collapse, marked by the 2019 financial crisis, has been exacerbated by the spill-over effects of the Syrian war. The conflict disrupted trade routes, increased public spending on refugees, and deepened unemployment. Sanctions on Syria, including the Caesar Act, have further strained Lebanon’s economy by targeting sectors perceived as linked to Hezbollah or the Assad regime. Today, Lebanon relies heavily on international aid, which is increasingly precarious due to global donor fatigue.

Lebanon faces an ongoing humanitarian crisis, with refugees bearing the brunt of declining international support. Healthcare and education systems, already under strain, are on the brink of collapse. NGOs and international organizations have played a vital role in bridging gaps, but recent funding cuts threaten these efforts. The situation underscores the urgent need for sustainable policies addressing Lebanon’s intertwined humanitarian and economic challenges.

The Way Forward

The Syrian conflict has profoundly reshaped Lebanon, compounding its economic woes, deepening political divides, and straining societal cohesion. The recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and the evolving situation in Syria illustrate the interconnectedness of regional dynamics and Lebanon’s vulnerabilities. While the cessation of hostilities in Syria might ease some pressures, it could also usher in new challenges, particularly if regional power struggles shift to Lebanon’s fragile landscape.

Addressing Lebanon’s crises requires a coordinated effort to stabilize its political system, manage the refugee burden, and rebuild its economy. Lebanon’s path forward is uncertain, but navigating these complexities is essential to securing a more stable future.