Hezbollah is working to reinforce its remaining defensive positions in southern Lebanon but has not restored the military capabilities it lost during its war with Israel, according to Lebanese security and political sources, who described claims of a major military rebuilding effort as exaggerated.

A senior Lebanese security source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the reports appeared designed to amplify the scale of Hezbollah’s recovery, arguing that the group’s current priority was to strengthen its existing positions and prepare to withstand a possible Israeli expansion into the highlands between Iqlim al-Tuffah and Jabal al-Rihane.

The source said Hezbollah was focused on defending what remained of its military presence rather than preparing to launch a new confrontation with Israel. The group, however, faces an increasingly difficult military environment, with Israeli forces maintaining control over areas south of the Litani River and several towns north of the river near Beaufort Castle, also known as Shqeif, which overlooks southern Lebanon.

A source close to Lebanon’s Shiite political alliance, comprising Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the group’s immediate priority was to rebuild enough of its capabilities to defend its remaining positions north of the Litani.

Another source with contacts inside Hezbollah said the group was repairing military infrastructure and reinforcing defensive lines but had yet to recover its former military strength. Media reports suggesting that it had regained substantial operational capabilities were overstating the extent of its recovery, the source added.

Israel’s military pressure limits Hezbollah’s options

Israel’s continued presence south of the Litani River, together with its control over strategically important locations north of the river, has restricted Hezbollah’s ability to move and operate along the front line. Israeli threats to expand its control toward the surrounding highlands have added to the pressure on the group.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has also threatened to strike Beirut’s southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh, if Hezbollah intervenes in support of Iran in response to Israeli attacks deep inside Iranian territory.

Against this backdrop, Hezbollah is seeking to reinforce its positions in the highlands to prepare for the possibility of further Israeli attacks. But the group is unlikely to embark on a major military operation without careful calculations, particularly in the absence of political cover from Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri or clear support from its Shiite constituency, according to the sources.

Hezbollah’s leadership would be mistaken, one source suggested, if it believed it could use the current period to buy enough time to rebuild its military capabilities without facing further Israeli pressure.

The outcome of Israel’s parliamentary elections is also unlikely to bring a significant change to the political and military situation in Lebanon, regardless of who becomes prime minister. None of the main Israeli political contenders is expected to facilitate an agreement with Lebanon unless Hezbollah disarms and the Lebanese state establishes a monopoly on weapons, the sources said.

Tampa talks remain deadlocked

The latest meeting between Lebanese and Israeli military delegations, hosted by the U.S. State Department in Tampa, Florida, made no significant progress, with disagreements continuing over the framework for future negotiations.

At the top of the list of disputes was Lebanon’s rejection of a proposed bilateral coordination committee. The unresolved issues are expected to return to the political level at another meeting, the date of which has not yet been determined and will be set by Washington.

The meeting is not expected to be rushed ahead of the formation of Israel’s next government.

Any progress toward an agreement will depend on the question of weapons being placed exclusively under state authority. Without movement on that issue, the negotiations are likely to remain deadlocked, the sources said.

Hezbollah’s retention of its weapons does not necessarily mean the group intends to resume fighting, one source noted. The substantial military imbalance between Hezbollah and Israel, along with the group’s restraint in responding to repeated Israeli violations and attacks, suggests that it is aware of the limits of its options.

Hezbollah is also unlikely to regain control of frontline towns north of the Litani River that overlook southern Lebanon. The group withdrew from the heights of Ali al-Taher and did not respond to calls to hand over its positions to the Lebanese Army, a move that could have helped prevent Israel from encircling the area.

For now, Hezbollah’s priorities appear to be consolidating its popular support and retaining its weapons as a bargaining chip for Iran, rather than initiating another military confrontation.

Its Shiite constituency, however, is less secure than it was before Hezbollah became involved in the wars linked to Gaza and Iran. Residents of southern Lebanon are increasingly concerned about stability and the possibility of returning to their destroyed towns, where living conditions remain extremely difficult.

Explosives seizure tests government’s commitment to disarmament

The dispute over explosives seized in the Dahr al-Baidar area has emerged as another test of the Lebanese government’s commitment to placing all weapons under state control.

A political figure, speaking through a security source, said the government was justified in refusing Hezbollah’s request to have the seized explosives returned. The decision sends a message to domestic and international audiences that the authorities intend to implement the Cabinet’s decision to establish a state monopoly on weapons and will not reverse course under pressure.

International support for the Lebanese government is closely tied to progress on disarmament, the source said.

The seizure should be viewed as part of a broader effort to bring all illegal weapons under state control and prevent their transportation or use outside the authority of the state. That principle applies to explosives as well as other military matériel.

Refusing to return the shipment also prevents Hezbollah from claiming that it has found a way around the prohibition on its military and security activities, regardless of whether the case is ultimately referred to the Court of Justice, the source added.

Efforts to pressure the judiciary and the government into reversing the ban on Hezbollah’s military wing have failed so far, which the source described as a point in the government’s favor.

Berri’s intervention in the case was intended to prevent a government crisis rather than to endorse Hezbollah’s demand for the explosives to be returned, the source said. The speaker ultimately left the matter to the judiciary, particularly after Hezbollah acknowledged that the explosives belonged to the group.