As Lebanon’s presidential race heats up, political forces and parliamentary blocs are recalibrating their strategies to navigate a deeply fractured landscape. The dynamics are reflected in key developments, such as a recent meeting for the opposition forces in Maarab and individual outreach efforts, notably Free Patriotic Movement leader Gebran Bassil’s renewed rounds of dialogue, starting with a visit to Dar al-Fatwa.

Berri's Strategic Maneuvering

Amid these efforts, Speaker Nabih Berri’s Ain al-Tineh residence remains the epicenter of coordination, guiding the course of political negotiations. Visitors close to Berri have described his deliberate "tactic" in steering discussions toward the parliamentary session he has scheduled for January 9.

Sources told Al-Modon that if consensus on a candidate proves elusive before the session, Berri plans to shift to the next phase of his strategy. In collaboration with other political forces, including former Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat and MP Gebran Bassil, Berri aims to narrow the list of presidential contenders to two or three names with the broadest possible acceptance. These candidates will then be presented to Parliament, where MPs will vote to determine the next president.

This strategy reflects Berri’s understanding that the current political moment is distinct from earlier phases. At the very least, this time no party is expected to obstruct the session.

Observers suggest that Berri and Hezbollah might align with Bassil to support a mutually acceptable candidate, potentially one of the few figures enjoying broad, albeit varied, support among parliamentary blocs.

Frangieh’s Waning Viability

Despite Berri’s insistence that Marada Movement chief Sleiman Frangieh remains a pivotal contender and Hezbollah’s reaffirmation of its support for him, there is a growing acknowledgment that Frangieh’s candidacy is effectively off the table.

Additionally, alternative names floated by Hezbollah and its allies, such as former intelligence chief George Khoury and acting General Security Director General Elias Baysari, face significant resistance both domestically and internationally. The international community, particularly the quintet group that includes the United States, has signaled that it will not endorse a candidate lacking independence, the ability to engage with both Eastern and Western powers, or the capacity to address the issue of Hezbollah’s arms.

Instead, international stakeholders continue to favor Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, who is viewed as a politically neutral figure unbound by regional or domestic agendas.

Jumblat’s Neutrality Amid Political Maneuvering

While most political forces are engaged in exploring potential alliances and candidates, Walid Jumblat has notably stepped back from the "name game." Instead, he has advocated for a settlement, consensus, and the swift election of a president, stressing the importance of mutual understanding in the absence of unanimity.

Sources within the Progressive Socialist Party confirmed to Al-Modon that MPs from the Democratic Gathering bloc will attend all presidential voting sessions.

“If consensus cannot be reached and voting proceeds, we will participate in the session and decide whom to support based on the developments,” the sources stated.

A Fragile Path Ahead

While some observers view the January 9 session as a potential turning point for electing a president, others remain cautious, noting that the road ahead is fraught with challenges. The weeks leading up to the session are being likened to a political minefield, with growing attention on Lebanon’s southern border and its border with Syria amid escalating military developments.