Source: FX Empire
Security & Justice
Southern Lebanon Endures Massive Damage: 40,000 Homes Leveled Across 37 Towns
Israeli forces have systematically destroyed entire neighborhoods in southern Lebanon, leveling more than 37 towns and wiping out over 40,000 residential units, according to Lebanon's National News Agency.
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Gaps in Coastal Radar Enabled Israeli Raid in Batroun, Army Commander Says
Lebanon’s army chief, General Joseph Aoun, detailed to Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati how Israeli forces likely exploited gaps in the country's coastal radar system during the recent raid carried out in Batroun. The briefing comes as Lebanese officials seek answers on how Israel’s elite Shayetet 13 unit carried out the landing undetected.
Monday, November 4, 2024
Opinion
My Hope for Lebanon
A company of Lebanese soldiers assigned to maintain order in this anxious wartime capital is gathered at its headquarters 100 yards from the Mediterranean. I make the blunder of asking their commander how many of his men are Shiites, Sunnis, Christians and Druze.
Monday, November 4, 2024
The Emptying of Baalbek Is a Moment to Take Stock
“Large numbers of people continue to flee their homes every day, as Israel’s military operations in Lebanon have been going on unabated.” These disturbing words could be from almost any news report about Israel’s invasion of its northern neighbour over the past month. However, they can be found in a report by the Norwegian Refugee Council’s Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre issued on July 27, 2006.
Saturday, November 2, 2024
Sports
FC Barcelona Fears First Team Star Will Be Banned From Playing, Reports SPORT
FC Barcelona is concerned that one of its main first-team stars will be banned from playing at the turn of 2025 because of issues related to his registration and Financial Fair Play (FFP) limits according to SPORT, which cited anonymous sources.
Friday, November 1, 2024
Tottenham Forward Son Heung-min Crowned Asia’s International Player of the Year
Tottenham forward Son Heung-min was crowned as Asia’s International Player of the Year for the fourth time by the Asian Football Confederation at its annual awards ceremony Tuesday.
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Saturday 3 February 2024 18:32:00
Oil Prices Forecast: Will Surging US Dollar Continue to Weigh on Crude?
Look for crude oil’s bearish trend to continue based on Fed rate cut speculations, Middle East peace, OPEC+ output, and China’s slowdown.
U.S. Economic Indicators and Oil Prices
Oil prices experienced a significant decline last week, with Light Crude Oil Futures closing at $72.28, marking a 7.35% decrease. This downward trend was influenced by U.S. economic data that suggested a lower likelihood of imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
The robust job creation figures in the U.S. have led to a strengthened dollar, which in turn impacts global crude demand. The implication is that high interest rates, which can suppress economic growth and, consequently, oil demand, seem likely to persist in major economies, including the U.S. and the euro zone.
Middle East Tensions and OPEC+ Decisions
The oil market also reacted to geopolitical developments. Reports of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas temporarily alleviated some geopolitical risk in critical shipping lanes, contributing to the decrease in oil prices.
Meanwhile, OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia, maintained its current output policy. The group’s decision regarding the extension of its first-quarter voluntary production cuts will be a critical factor to monitor in the coming weeks.
Supply Disruptions and Investment Trends
Supply-side factors also played a role in last week’s oil market movements. The outage at BP’s Whiting refinery in Indiana, due to a power loss, disrupted operations and led to uncertainties about oil supply distribution.
In contrast, the U.S. oil rig count remained stable, indicating a steady future supply outlook. Additionally, there was a notable increase in oil futures and options positions by money managers, highlighting investor sentiment in the oil market.
China’s Economic Outlook
Concerns about China’s economic recovery continued to exert pressure on the oil market. The International Monetary Fund’s forecast of a slowdown in China’s economic growth to 4.6% in 2024, with further deceleration in the medium term, raises questions about future oil demand in one of the world’s largest economies. This aspect remains a significant factor in shaping global oil market trends.
Weekly Forecast
In the upcoming week, the oil market is poised for a bearish trend, influenced by several key factors.
Strong U.S. economic data reduces the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts, potentially dampening global oil demand amidst a stronger dollar.
Geopolitical stability in the Middle East, particularly regarding Israel and Hamas, could lower risk premiums in oil prices.
OPEC+’s decision to maintain current output levels and China’s economic slowdown, as forecasted by the IMF, are expected to further suppress demand.
Additionally, the stabilized supply situation, exemplified by the quick recovery at BP’s Whiting refinery and a steady U.S. oil rig count, suggests adequate supply, contributing to the downward pressure on oil prices.
