Source: FX Empire
Security & Justice
Southern Lebanon Endures Massive Damage: 40,000 Homes Leveled Across 37 Towns
Israeli forces have systematically destroyed entire neighborhoods in southern Lebanon, leveling more than 37 towns and wiping out over 40,000 residential units, according to Lebanon's National News Agency.
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Gaps in Coastal Radar Enabled Israeli Raid in Batroun, Army Commander Says
Lebanon’s army chief, General Joseph Aoun, detailed to Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati how Israeli forces likely exploited gaps in the country's coastal radar system during the recent raid carried out in Batroun. The briefing comes as Lebanese officials seek answers on how Israel’s elite Shayetet 13 unit carried out the landing undetected.
Monday, November 4, 2024
Opinion
My Hope for Lebanon
A company of Lebanese soldiers assigned to maintain order in this anxious wartime capital is gathered at its headquarters 100 yards from the Mediterranean. I make the blunder of asking their commander how many of his men are Shiites, Sunnis, Christians and Druze.
Monday, November 4, 2024
The Emptying of Baalbek Is a Moment to Take Stock
“Large numbers of people continue to flee their homes every day, as Israel’s military operations in Lebanon have been going on unabated.” These disturbing words could be from almost any news report about Israel’s invasion of its northern neighbour over the past month. However, they can be found in a report by the Norwegian Refugee Council’s Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre issued on July 27, 2006.
Saturday, November 2, 2024
Sports
FC Barcelona Fears First Team Star Will Be Banned From Playing, Reports SPORT
FC Barcelona is concerned that one of its main first-team stars will be banned from playing at the turn of 2025 because of issues related to his registration and Financial Fair Play (FFP) limits according to SPORT, which cited anonymous sources.
Friday, November 1, 2024
Tottenham Forward Son Heung-min Crowned Asia’s International Player of the Year
Tottenham forward Son Heung-min was crowned as Asia’s International Player of the Year for the fourth time by the Asian Football Confederation at its annual awards ceremony Tuesday.
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Saturday 10 February 2024 16:39:55
Oil Prices Forecast: Will Middle East Tensions Drive Further Oil Price Hikes?
Last week’s rise in crude oil, driven by Middle East tensions, particularly Israeli actions in Gaza, marked a significant 6% increase.
Key Points
- Middle East conflict spikes oil prices higher.
- Russian exports exceed OPEC+ limits, raising concerns.
- US production peaks, refinery downtimes tighten market.
Escalation in the Middle East
Last week saw a notable rise in oil prices, with crude oil surging over 6%, a significant rebound from the previous week’s downturn. This uptick was largely driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Israeli military actions in the Gaza Strip, especially the bombing of Rafah, heightened market concerns, largely contributing to spike in oil prices.
The rejection of a ceasefire with Hamas and the ongoing hostilities indicate that the market may have previously undervalued the impact of regional instability on oil prices.
Last week, Light Crude Oil Futures settled at $76.84, up $4.56 or + 6.31%.
Russian Export Increases and Global Response
Adding to the market’s complexity was Russia’s augmented crude exports, exceeding the limits set by the OPEC+ agreement. This rise, caused by drone attacks and technical glitches at Russian refineries, questions Russia’s adherence to production cuts. Further influencing this situation were U.S. sanctions against several entities for violating the price cap on Russian oil, adding another dimension to the global supply landscape.
US Refinery Trends and Inventories Changes
In the U.S., a return to peak production levels and significant refinery downtimes have tightened the oil market. The country’s output reached 13.3 million barrels per day, while draws in gasoline and middle-distillate stocks underscore a tightening in refinery capacity. These trends, along with a diesel shortage in Europe, have bolstered a bullish sentiment in the oil market.
Forecast for the Coming Week
Continued Market Volatility
The coming week is expected to maintain the trend of volatility in the oil market. Geopolitical risks, especially those emanating from the Middle East, coupled with Russia’s unpredictable export patterns, are likely to keep prices on an upward trend.
Strong Global Demand and U.S. Dollar Impact
Robust demand from key oil consumers like India and the U.S. continues to support bullish market sentiment. However, the influence of the U.S. Dollar on oil prices cannot be overlooked. Its strength could potentially temper global demand for dollar-denominated crude oil.
Bullish Outlook
Taking into account these factors, the short-term forecast for crude oil is bullish. The market appears to be underpricing the risks associated with the ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply constraints.
Traders should brace for potential upward movements in oil prices, particularly if the situation in the Middle East worsens or if Russian export behaviors continue to defy expectations.
The balance between supply concerns and global demand will be pivotal in shaping the market’s direction in the near term.
