Source: FX Empire
Security & Justice
Southern Lebanon Endures Massive Damage: 40,000 Homes Leveled Across 37 Towns
Israeli forces have systematically destroyed entire neighborhoods in southern Lebanon, leveling more than 37 towns and wiping out over 40,000 residential units, according to Lebanon's National News Agency.
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Gaps in Coastal Radar Enabled Israeli Raid in Batroun, Army Commander Says
Lebanon’s army chief, General Joseph Aoun, detailed to Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati how Israeli forces likely exploited gaps in the country's coastal radar system during the recent raid carried out in Batroun. The briefing comes as Lebanese officials seek answers on how Israel’s elite Shayetet 13 unit carried out the landing undetected.
Monday, November 4, 2024
Opinion
The Emptying of Baalbek Is a Moment to Take Stock
“Large numbers of people continue to flee their homes every day, as Israel’s military operations in Lebanon have been going on unabated.” These disturbing words could be from almost any news report about Israel’s invasion of its northern neighbour over the past month. However, they can be found in a report by the Norwegian Refugee Council’s Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre issued on July 27, 2006.
Saturday, November 2, 2024
A Future Without Hezbollah
At the end of September, when Israel’s campaign to destroy Hezbollah was reaching its height, I met one of the group’s supporters in a seaside café in western Beirut. He was a middle-aged man with a thin white beard and the spent look of someone who had not slept for days. He was an academic of sorts, not a fighter, but his ties to Hezbollah were deep and long-standing.
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Sports
Tottenham Forward Son Heung-min Crowned Asia’s International Player of the Year
Tottenham forward Son Heung-min was crowned as Asia’s International Player of the Year for the fourth time by the Asian Football Confederation at its annual awards ceremony Tuesday.
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Real Madrid Launch Investigation into Racist Insults After El Clasico Defeat
Real Madrid has launched an investigation into racist insults directed at players during Saturday’s 4-0 home loss to Barcelona in LaLiga, it said on Sunday.
Monday, October 28, 2024
Monday 11 December 2023 15:33:31
Oil Prices Forecast: US Strategic Reserve Refill Plans Lift WTI and Brent Crude
SPR boost tackles oil supply glut while China’s CPI deflation and OPEC+ doubts add to crude’s market uncertainty.
Slight Follow-Through Rally
Crude oil prices are higher early Monday, responding to the U.S.’s initiative to replenish its strategic reserves, offsetting concerns about surplus supply and subdued demand forecasts for the coming year. Despite the early strength, the trend is still down and the market is bearish. Therefore, any rally is likely to be a short-term event and another shorting opportunity. It’s going to take time and a major event to shift sentiment enough over the short-run to drive out the stubbornly strong shorts.
Market Trends
Brent and WTI crude futures both opened the week with gains, continuing the rise from Friday. This increase comes despite the longest streak of weekly declines since 2018, highlighting ongoing oversupply concerns. The market is currently balancing these supply issues against the backdrop of uncertain demand, particularly from China.
Economic Influences
The U.S. move to add up to 3 million barrels to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is providing some stability. Despite this, doubts linger about the effectiveness of OPEC+’s production cuts. RBC Capital Markets forecasts a significant draw in stocks initially, but a more moderated reduction over the full year.
Geopolitical Impact
China’s economic situation, especially deflationary trends in its consumer price index, raises questions about its recovery and oil demand. Additionally, a recent meeting between Russia and Saudi Arabia focused on OPEC+ production cuts, adding another layer of complexity to the global oil market.
Short-Term Outlook
The crude oil market is facing a mix of bullish and bearish factors in the short term. The U.S. signaling of intentions to acquire up to 3 million barrels for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) may have helped establish a bottom, but it’s going to take effective OPEC+ production cuts to tighten supply and support a rally.
However, weaker compliance, global central banks’ monetary policies, and China’s economic stability are key variables that could influence market direction.
Geopolitical developments in oil-producing regions also remain a critical factor in determining the supply trend. These elements will likely shape the trend of oil prices on Monday.
Technical Analysis
The current daily price of Light Crude Oil Futures at 71.70, marginally above the previous day’s close of 71.23, indicates a modest uptick. However, it remains below both the 50-day moving average of 79.88 and the 200-day moving average of 76.29, suggesting bearish sentiment in a broader context.
The price sits beneath the minor resistance at 72.48 and well below the main resistance at 77.43, reinforcing a bearish outlook over the medium term. The minor support level at 66.85, though not currently active, serves as a potential lower boundary.
In today’s scenario, the current price is pivotal, potentially setting a bullish tone for the day. Overall, however, despite the slight rise, market sentiment for Light Crude Oil Futures leans towards bearish in the short to medium term.
