Source: FX Empire
Security & Justice
UNIFIL and Lebanese Red Cross Secure Custody of Lebanese Citizen Abducted by Israeli Army
UNIFIL and the Lebanese Red Cross took custody of the citizen who was abducted by Israeli army in Wadi Al-Hujeir in South Lebanon.
Thursday, December 26, 2024
UNIFIL Presses for Implementation of UNSC Resolution 1701
UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) has released a press statement outlining recent developments regarding the implementation of UN Security Council resolution 1701, following an understanding between Israel and Lebanon.
Thursday, December 26, 2024
Opinion
Are Syria’s New Authorities Against the Iranian Axis?
Everyone is searching for clues about the possible foreign policy of the new Damascus regime, especially concerning Iran. If it turns out to be against Iran, this would be a significant development and could potentially change the face of the region.
Friday, December 20, 2024
Strong Rebound on Markets for Lebanon Eurobonds
TRADERS IN THE LOCAL MARKET HAVE CONFIRMED THAT THE LEBANESE POUND IS GAINING GROUND ON THE DEMAND CURVE AS LEBANON EUROBONDS ARE WITNESSING A GROWTH CURVE
Thursday, December 19, 2024
Sports
Ronaldo to Run for Brazil Federation Presidency
Brazil legend Ronaldo has announced he will run for the presidency of the country's football association and wants to "recover the prestige" of the national team.
Tuesday, December 17, 2024
Cristiano Ronaldo Unveils New Private Jet Worth $73 Million
Cristiano Ronaldo, one of the richest global athletes, has unveiled his upgraded private jet reportedly worth $73 million. With its top-notch design, exceptional speed and range of 7500 nautical miles, the Gulfstream G650 is among the fastest jets in the world.
Monday, December 16, 2024
Monday 11 December 2023 15:33:31
Oil Prices Forecast: US Strategic Reserve Refill Plans Lift WTI and Brent Crude
SPR boost tackles oil supply glut while China’s CPI deflation and OPEC+ doubts add to crude’s market uncertainty.
Slight Follow-Through Rally
Crude oil prices are higher early Monday, responding to the U.S.’s initiative to replenish its strategic reserves, offsetting concerns about surplus supply and subdued demand forecasts for the coming year. Despite the early strength, the trend is still down and the market is bearish. Therefore, any rally is likely to be a short-term event and another shorting opportunity. It’s going to take time and a major event to shift sentiment enough over the short-run to drive out the stubbornly strong shorts.
Market Trends
Brent and WTI crude futures both opened the week with gains, continuing the rise from Friday. This increase comes despite the longest streak of weekly declines since 2018, highlighting ongoing oversupply concerns. The market is currently balancing these supply issues against the backdrop of uncertain demand, particularly from China.
Economic Influences
The U.S. move to add up to 3 million barrels to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is providing some stability. Despite this, doubts linger about the effectiveness of OPEC+’s production cuts. RBC Capital Markets forecasts a significant draw in stocks initially, but a more moderated reduction over the full year.
Geopolitical Impact
China’s economic situation, especially deflationary trends in its consumer price index, raises questions about its recovery and oil demand. Additionally, a recent meeting between Russia and Saudi Arabia focused on OPEC+ production cuts, adding another layer of complexity to the global oil market.
Short-Term Outlook
The crude oil market is facing a mix of bullish and bearish factors in the short term. The U.S. signaling of intentions to acquire up to 3 million barrels for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) may have helped establish a bottom, but it’s going to take effective OPEC+ production cuts to tighten supply and support a rally.
However, weaker compliance, global central banks’ monetary policies, and China’s economic stability are key variables that could influence market direction.
Geopolitical developments in oil-producing regions also remain a critical factor in determining the supply trend. These elements will likely shape the trend of oil prices on Monday.
Technical Analysis
The current daily price of Light Crude Oil Futures at 71.70, marginally above the previous day’s close of 71.23, indicates a modest uptick. However, it remains below both the 50-day moving average of 79.88 and the 200-day moving average of 76.29, suggesting bearish sentiment in a broader context.
The price sits beneath the minor resistance at 72.48 and well below the main resistance at 77.43, reinforcing a bearish outlook over the medium term. The minor support level at 66.85, though not currently active, serves as a potential lower boundary.
In today’s scenario, the current price is pivotal, potentially setting a bullish tone for the day. Overall, however, despite the slight rise, market sentiment for Light Crude Oil Futures leans towards bearish in the short to medium term.
