Source: FX Empire
Security & Justice
Four Italian Soldiers Hurt in UNIFIL Base Attack, Hezbollah Suspected
Four Italian soldiers were lightly injured after two rockets exploded at a UNIFIL peacekeeping force base in southern Lebanon, the Rome government said on Friday, expressing outrage at the incident.
Friday, November 22, 2024
UN Reports Heavy Clashes Between Israeli Troops and Hezbollah in South Lebanon
Israeli troops fought fierce battles with Hezbollah fighters on Friday in different areas in south Lebanon, including a coastal town that is home to the headquarters of U.N. peacekeepers.
Friday, November 22, 2024
Opinion
Lebanon's Economy—Not Battlefield—May Have the Final Word
Time and again during this most recent war in Lebanon, we hear the phrase, “The battlefield has the final word”. It has become the sole and wholly unsatisfactory refrain of Hezbollah and the so-called 'Axis of Resistance'.
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
Flying Above the Bombs, a Lebanese Airline Becomes an Unlikely National Hero
It used to be like almost any other national carrier, fielding gripes about flight delays, ticket prices and bad food.
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
Sports
Israel Face France in Paris Football Match Under Tight Security
Israel face France in a Nations League football match in Paris on Thursday surrounded by a huge security operation to prevent a repetition of the attacks on Israeli fans in Amsterdam last week.
Thursday, November 14, 2024
Alcaraz Beats Rublev to Open ATP Finals Account
Carlos Alcaraz opened his account at the ATP Finals on Wednesday with an entertaining 6-3, 7-6 (10/8) win over Andrey Rublev which boosted his hopes of reaching the semifinals.
Wednesday, November 13, 2024
Monday 11 December 2023 15:33:31
Oil Prices Forecast: US Strategic Reserve Refill Plans Lift WTI and Brent Crude
SPR boost tackles oil supply glut while China’s CPI deflation and OPEC+ doubts add to crude’s market uncertainty.
Slight Follow-Through Rally
Crude oil prices are higher early Monday, responding to the U.S.’s initiative to replenish its strategic reserves, offsetting concerns about surplus supply and subdued demand forecasts for the coming year. Despite the early strength, the trend is still down and the market is bearish. Therefore, any rally is likely to be a short-term event and another shorting opportunity. It’s going to take time and a major event to shift sentiment enough over the short-run to drive out the stubbornly strong shorts.
Market Trends
Brent and WTI crude futures both opened the week with gains, continuing the rise from Friday. This increase comes despite the longest streak of weekly declines since 2018, highlighting ongoing oversupply concerns. The market is currently balancing these supply issues against the backdrop of uncertain demand, particularly from China.
Economic Influences
The U.S. move to add up to 3 million barrels to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is providing some stability. Despite this, doubts linger about the effectiveness of OPEC+’s production cuts. RBC Capital Markets forecasts a significant draw in stocks initially, but a more moderated reduction over the full year.
Geopolitical Impact
China’s economic situation, especially deflationary trends in its consumer price index, raises questions about its recovery and oil demand. Additionally, a recent meeting between Russia and Saudi Arabia focused on OPEC+ production cuts, adding another layer of complexity to the global oil market.
Short-Term Outlook
The crude oil market is facing a mix of bullish and bearish factors in the short term. The U.S. signaling of intentions to acquire up to 3 million barrels for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) may have helped establish a bottom, but it’s going to take effective OPEC+ production cuts to tighten supply and support a rally.
However, weaker compliance, global central banks’ monetary policies, and China’s economic stability are key variables that could influence market direction.
Geopolitical developments in oil-producing regions also remain a critical factor in determining the supply trend. These elements will likely shape the trend of oil prices on Monday.
Technical Analysis
The current daily price of Light Crude Oil Futures at 71.70, marginally above the previous day’s close of 71.23, indicates a modest uptick. However, it remains below both the 50-day moving average of 79.88 and the 200-day moving average of 76.29, suggesting bearish sentiment in a broader context.
The price sits beneath the minor resistance at 72.48 and well below the main resistance at 77.43, reinforcing a bearish outlook over the medium term. The minor support level at 66.85, though not currently active, serves as a potential lower boundary.
In today’s scenario, the current price is pivotal, potentially setting a bullish tone for the day. Overall, however, despite the slight rise, market sentiment for Light Crude Oil Futures leans towards bearish in the short to medium term.
