It is apparently without irony that the Israeli military called last week’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah “Operation New Order”. What people in this region are seeing instead is the spread of disorder as death, displacement and instability in Lebanon, Palestine and several other Arab countries continue to mount.

It is not an exaggeration to say that the past 12 months of war have led the Middle East to this defining moment, one that is fraught with uncertainty. Palestinians, already labouring under decades of military occupation, seem as far from freedom and independence as ever. Gaza has been rendered near-uninhabitable by an indiscriminate Israeli campaign. The West Bank is already cantonised by land grabs to facilitate Israel’s network of illegal settlements and experiences near-daily deaths as the occupation continues to meet resistance. Meanwhile, Israel is no more secure and the fate of more than 100 hostages in extremely difficult circumstances remains unknown.

Long-suffering Lebanon has become the latest country to feel the impact of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s go-for-broke offensive. Hundreds of civilians have lost their lives as Israeli forces abandon any semblance of proportionality in its hunt for its enemies. Lebanon’s caretaker government has been reduced to the status of an onlooker as Israel and the Iran-backed group lock horns. But the sheer number of leading Hezbollah figures killed and the numerous areas bombed by Israel gives this round of violence a different feel from previous conflicts. Where Lebanon goes from here is anyone’s guess.

Meanwhile, the people of Yemen – a country that has been the scene of one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises over the past decade – find themselves caught between another Iran-backed paramilitary group and the long arm of Israeli revenge. Although Houthi attempts to strike Israel with drones and missiles are dangerous, they have singularly failed to change Israel’s strategy towards Palestine or Lebanon in any meaningful way. Instead, Israeli warplanes can bomb targets in Hodeidah – a key Red Sea port and entry point for humanitarian aid – without much international reaction.

Other countries are being shaped by this unpredictable and multifaceted war. Syria has been the target of repeated bombings by Israeli warplanes over the past year and is now experiencing the return of more than 100,000 desperate refugees fleeing the chaos in Lebanon. In Iraq, Iran-aligned militias are on the march as the US announces an agreement with Baghdad to withdraw American troops from parts of the country, where they have been stationed for a decade to help fight ISIS.

In Israel itself, there is no going back to life before October 7. The country’s population was already polarised along political lines before the Hamas-led attack that claimed more than 1,200 lives in a single day, traumatising Israeli society. Further fault lines are being exposed as Israel’s government plans to incorporate religious Jews into the armed forces and extremist Cabinet ministers insist on building more settlements or trying to change the status of Jerusalem’s flashpoint religious sites.

Yes, a “new order” is likely taking shape in the Middle East but right now it looks like one characterised by violence and war. It need not be so. Although militarists and extremists, whether Israeli, Arab or Iranian, seem to be dictating events right now, the voices of reason on all sides – and there are many – continue to work for peace. It is their vision of a “new order” based on peace that should be embraced if this region is to have a better future