As discussions intensify around the lifting of international sanctions on Syria, Lebanese experts and analysts are weighing in on the broad economic implications for their own country. With deep historical and commercial ties between the two neighbors, easing restrictions on Damascus could offer Lebanon a much-needed reprieve amid its ongoing financial crisis.

Economic benefits for Lebanon are largely tied to Syria's re-engagement with international trade. Analysts note that before the war, Lebanon’s economy benefited significantly from supplying goods and services to Syria. A return to normal import-export activity would inject U.S. dollar liquidity into the Syrian market, thereby reducing the current drain of foreign currency from Lebanon. Such a shift would ease pressure on Lebanon’s already strained central bank and enhance its capacity to absorb surplus dollars from the local market.

Equally critical is the potential to reduce Lebanon’s import bill. Years of rampant smuggling across the porous border have inflated Lebanon’s import costs, driven largely by the need to unofficially supply the Syrian market. Lifting sanctions and reopening formal trade channels would likely curb smuggling, improve Lebanon’s balance of payments, and contribute to restoring financial equilibrium.

The energy sector stands to gain the most. If sanctions are eased, Lebanon could resume long-delayed plans to import Egyptian gas via Syria for its power plants in Deir Ammar and Zahrani, as well as other facilities. Additionally, the country could proceed with a stalled project to import 250 megawatts of electricity from Jordan through Syrian territory. Combined, these steps could potentially boost daily electricity supply to 15–18 hours, a significant improvement from current levels.

Lebanon may also play a vital role in Syria’s post-war reconstruction. The country’s ports, construction firms, financial institutions, insurance providers, technology startups, and pharmaceutical manufacturers are all well positioned to tap into the enormous demand. Preliminary estimates suggest Syria will need approximately $400 billion to rebuild infrastructure and revive its economy.

Ziad Nasreddine, a Lebanese economic researcher, cautions that despite the promise, the path to implementation is neither quick nor inexpensive.

“The mechanisms required to lift sanctions will take considerable time and involve high costs, especially when it comes to reconstruction,” he told Annahar.

According to Nasreddine, the respective weaknesses and strengths of the Syrian and Lebanese economies complement each other. Yet the sanctions regime has had a disproportionately negative impact on Lebanon. Among the most serious repercussions is the ongoing displacement crisis. With no political decision in sight to facilitate the return of the displaced Syrians, Lebanon continues to bear a financial burden estimated by the World Bank at $2.5 to $3 billion annually, totaling nearly $40 billion since the onset of the Syrian conflict.

Tourism in Lebanon has suffered a 30% decline due to the regional instability, leading to estimated losses of $2.5 billion. Lebanese exports have dropped from $5 billion to $1.8 billion. Additional strains include increased electricity consumption by the displaced, roughly 350 megawatts annually, or $170 million in costs, as well as heightened demand on water supplies, public infrastructure, labor markets, and education and healthcare services.

Nasreddine argues that lifting sanctions could alleviate some of these pressures by facilitating energy transit routes and reinvigorating trade.

“If sanctions are lifted, infrastructure projects like the proposed gas and electricity pipelines will become easier to implement,” he noted.

Still, the benefits are not without caveats. A mass return of Syrian workers could lead to labor shortages in Lebanon. There are also concerns about future competition for investment. As Syria opens its economy, it could attract major Arab corporations, potentially diminishing Beirut’s traditional role as a regional hub. Even as Tripoli’s port gears up for more activity, the UAE’s $800 million commitment to develop the port of Tartus signals Syria’s own aspirations to become a key economic player.

Nasreddine stresses the need for carefully negotiated bilateral trade and economic agreements to ensure that Lebanon maximizes its gains.

“Relying on informal arrangements or arbitrary practices would be a mistake,” he warned. “Lebanon must approach this with a clear strategy that leverages its comparative advantages.”

Looking ahead, Nasreddine believes the social and economic repercussions of lifting sanctions will depend largely on Syria’s emerging role within the regional order.