Lebanon’s aviation and tourism sectors are struggling to navigate a volatile security environment marked by recurring escalations and ceasefire announcements, with industry officials warning that uncertainty is undermining travel demand and threatening the country’s crucial summer season.

The situation in and around Beirut has become increasingly unpredictable, resembling an “on-and-off” cycle in which periods of calm are repeatedly interrupted by threats of military action, particularly against Beirut’s southern suburbs. 

The impact was evident several days ago when Israel warned that it would carry out strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs in response to rockets fired toward its territory. Following the warning, an Iraqi airline suspended its flights to Beirut. However, after rhetoric shifted toward ceasefire assurances and de-escalation, flights resumed and both air travel and tourism activity stabilized.

Regional tensions flared again on Tuesday when Iran launched missiles toward Gulf states, including Bahrain and Kuwait, prompting several countries to adopt precautionary measures. Kuwait temporarily closed its airspace, leading Lebanon’s national carrier, Middle East Airlines (MEA), to cancel flights to the Gulf country on Wednesday.

Despite the regional turmoil, officials say air traffic through Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport has remained relatively resilient.

Mohammad Aziz, head of Lebanon’s Civil Aviation Authority, told Nidaa Al-Watan newspaper that airport activity continues to perform well given current circumstances. On Monday, the day Israel issued evacuation warnings for Beirut’s southern suburbs, the airport recorded 106 flights, with 6,585 arriving passengers and 7,269 departures.

According to Aziz, many of those departing were Lebanese expatriates and Gulf visitors who had spent the Eid al-Adha holiday in Lebanon before returning home.

Although flight volumes remain below pre-war levels, passenger demand has remained relatively strong due to high aircraft occupancy rates.

“In the same period last year, when Lebanon was not experiencing war conditions, the number of flights was significantly higher,” Aziz said. “However, passenger traffic remains good because planes are operating at full capacity.”

In April alone, Beirut airport handled approximately 340,000 passengers. Arrivals totaled 186,614, while departures reached 153,293, leaving a positive balance of roughly 33,000 more arrivals than departures.

Airport authorities also recorded 3,033 flights during the month, averaging around 100 flights per day.

Aziz estimated that airport operations currently function at roughly 70% of normal levels, provided military activity remains confined away from Beirut’s southern suburbs.

“When threats or strikes target the southern suburbs, the equation changes immediately,” he said.

He noted that passenger traffic had been expected to reach around 18,000 arrivals and departures on June 1. However, following evacuation warnings and subsequent strikes in the southern suburbs, passenger numbers dropped to approximately 14,000 the following day.

Travel industry representatives say foreign airlines remain particularly sensitive to developments involving Beirut.

Jean Abboud, head of Lebanon’s Syndicate of Travel and Tourism Agencies, said all travel indicators change whenever Beirut or its southern suburbs come under attack.

“Foreign airlines suspend flights to Beirut, leaving Middle East Airlines as the only carrier continuing operations after receiving guarantees from the United States,” Abboud told Nidaa Al-Watan.

He added that the situation could become considerably worse if the pace of Israeli strikes returns to levels seen in 2024, when Lebanon experienced seven or eight raids per day.

Currently, between 40 and 45 airlines continue operating flights to Beirut, although many are maintaining reduced schedules compared with normal periods.

Abboud attributed the decline in air traffic to several factors, including ongoing regional security tensions, particularly in the Gulf, where many Lebanese expatriates live and work.

He also pointed to a decline in visits by expatriates, whose disposable income has been affected by regional instability.

“Many expatriates who previously traveled to Lebanon three or four times a year are now limiting themselves to a single visit,” he said.

Rising travel costs have further dampened demand. Abboud noted that ticket prices on international carriers have increased by roughly 40% as oil prices climbed from around $70 to $112 per barrel. Fuel accounts for approximately 35% of an airline’s operating costs.

He argued that reopening the Strait of Hormuz would help reduce fuel-related expenses and ease pressure on airfares.

Insurance costs have also increased significantly. Airlines operating in regions considered active conflict zones face substantially higher premiums, making flights to and through the region more expensive.

Attention is now turning to Lebanon’s summer season, traditionally one of the most important periods for the country’s economy.

Aziz said passenger traffic could increase by around 30% if security conditions stabilize.

Under such a scenario, Beirut airport could handle between four and five million passengers annually, a figure he described as satisfactory given current circumstances.

By comparison, the airport’s historical peak reached approximately seven million annual passengers, equivalent to around 20,000 travelers per day.

Yet tourism professionals remain cautious.

Abboud said summer bookings from Gulf countries, other Arab states, and Europe remain weak and highly vulnerable to cancellation whenever security tensions intensify.

Current travel activity ranges between 4,000 and 5,000 passengers arriving and departing daily, compared with 10,000 to 12,000 passengers during the same period last year.

The uncertainty is also weighing heavily on Lebanon’s hotel sector.

Hotels are currently operating at occupancy rates of just 5% to 7%, according to Pierre Achkar, head of the Federation of Tourism Syndicates in Lebanon and president of the hotel owners’ association.

Occupancy improved only marginally during the Eid al-Adha holiday period, rising from around 9% to between 14% and 15%, he said.

Achkar noted that many Lebanese expatriates and Gulf visitors own homes in Lebanon and therefore do not rely on hotels when visiting the country.

As for the summer season, he offered a bleak assessment.

“There are no bookings,” Achkar said.

He explained that hotels remain in close contact with travel agencies in Australia, the United States and Canada that specialize in serving Lebanese expatriates. According to those agencies, between 40% and 50% of summer reservations previously made by expatriates have already been canceled because of security concerns.

Travel restrictions also continue to affect demand. Entry advisories and travel warnings remain in place for many foreign nationals, including some people of Lebanese origin who do not hold Lebanese identification documents.