Lebanon has recently received a series of Arab and international warnings that it is entering a dangerous phase, amid growing U.S. pressure on the State to take action against Hezbollah, cut off the group's financial lifelines and dismantle its military branches and civilian institutions, Annahar newspaper said.

The warnings have coincided with Israeli threats of war and an expanded occupation that could extend as far as the Awali River and include the western Bekaa Valley, with Israel accusing Hezbollah of rebuilding its military capabilities and bringing weapons into the country.

Washington's warnings amount to an alert over what it considers the Lebanese State's failure to take decisive measures against Hezbollah. The pressure comes as Israel threatens to widen its military operations and consolidate its presence in Lebanese territory, raising concerns that the country could face another war before it has recovered from previous conflicts.

Israel Hardens Its Position as Negotiations Stall

Lebanon continues to rely on negotiations under U.S. auspices to secure an Israeli withdrawal from occupied areas, including the so-called pilot zones. Beirut hopes that progress on this front would give the government greater leverage in addressing the issue of Hezbollah's weapons and restoring the State's authority.

But the negotiating track has yet to deliver a decisive breakthrough, Annahar said. There are no clear indications that Israel intends to withdraw from the areas it occupies in southern Lebanon. Instead, Israel appears to be consolidating its presence in what has become known as the “Yellow Security Zone,” while maintaining pressure on the Lebanese government to act against Hezbollah.

Israeli threats to extend the occupation as far as the Awali River and into the western Bekaa have further complicated the situation. Israel has cited allegations that Hezbollah is rebuilding its military infrastructure and replenishing its weapons as justification for maintaining its military presence and potentially expanding its operations.

For Lebanon, the challenge is not simply to secure a withdrawal but to prevent the negotiations from becoming a mechanism through which Israel imposes its conditions without offering meaningful guarantees for Lebanese sovereignty.

Abandoning the negotiations or the existing framework agreement would carry its own risks. Such a move could damage Lebanon's foreign relations and expose the country to further international pressure, including possible sanctions or economic restrictions. Yet continuing along the same path without securing tangible results risks leaving Beirut with little leverage over either Israel or Hezbollah.

Lebanon therefore needs to broaden its diplomatic efforts and seek stronger Arab and international backing to counter Israel's demands. Any future settlement should not be limited to security arrangements but should also consider political and economic dimensions, within a broader Arab framework rather than one shaped exclusively by Israeli conditions.

Beirut must also recognize that Washington is unlikely to provide leverage without demanding commitments or concessions in return. These could concern Hezbollah's weapons, an Israeli withdrawal, reconstruction and assistance to the Lebanese army. The Lebanese government cannot assume that U.S. support will automatically translate into arrangements that meet its own priorities.

Hezbollah Defies the State and Maintains Its Regional Alignment

The crisis is compounded by Hezbollah's continued refusal to discuss its weapons or accept a framework that would place its military capabilities under State authority.

The group appears to be operating as though the political and security landscape has not changed since Oct. 8, 2023, continuing to assert its role in decision-making under the formula of the “army, people, resistance.” Its position challenges the government's efforts to establish a unified national policy on security and prevent Lebanon from being pulled into another regional conflict.

Hezbollah's approach extends beyond its rejection of discussions over its arsenal. The group's weapons strategy, the transfer of explosives under the banner of resistance and its declared support for Iran have heightened concerns over its priorities at a time when Lebanon is facing mounting external threats.

Recent visits by Iranian officials to Lebanon have reinforced these concerns. The officials have expressed Tehran's intention to revive its regional axis of allies and continue supporting Hezbollah against what Iran describes as Israeli and U.S. projects.

This alignment places Lebanon in a difficult position. While the State seeks to avoid another war and secure an Israeli withdrawal, Hezbollah remains committed to a regional strategy that could draw the country into a confrontation extending far beyond its borders.

The government has reportedly begun taking measures against Hezbollah after dialogue broke down and efforts to establish a unified national position failed. But these steps have not resolved the fundamental dispute over who controls decisions of war and peace in Lebanon.

Hezbollah's continued assertion of independent military authority also risks giving Israel further grounds to justify its occupation, particularly as Israel alleges that the group is rebuilding its capabilities and rearming.

Risk of a Third War or Another Intervention on Iran's Behalf

The danger facing Lebanon extends beyond the current confrontation with Israel. The prospect of a renewed war between the United States and Iran raises the possibility that Hezbollah could become involved, pulling Lebanon into another conflict with potentially devastating consequences.

Lebanon can ill afford another war or an intervention on Iran's behalf. The country remains burdened by severe social, financial, political and security problems, leaving its institutions and economy vulnerable to further destabilization.

Hezbollah's refusal to change course, combined with its continued reliance on external alliances, has heightened the risk that Lebanon could be drawn into a conflict over which its government has limited control. The group appears determined to preserve its military role despite the potential consequences for the country as a whole.

At the same time, Israel's threats to expand its occupation place additional pressure on Beirut. If negotiations fail to secure a withdrawal while Hezbollah continues rebuilding its military capabilities, Lebanon could face both an entrenched Israeli presence and a renewed cycle of hostilities.