Lebanon’s war losses have exceeded $20 billion and could climb toward $25 billion if hostilities continue, Finance Minister Yassine Jaber warned, cautioning that the country’s most severe economic and social shock may only become fully visible once the fighting ends and displaced residents return to devastated communities.

Speaking to Annahar, Jaber said the destruction caused by the conflict is growing by the day, with every additional hour of fighting bringing more casualties, damaged homes, shuttered businesses, and lost economic opportunities.

“The real shock will begin when people return to their villages and towns and discover the scale of what they have lost,” Jaber said, warning that the impact extends far beyond the direct cost of damaged buildings and infrastructure.

According to the minister, cumulative losses since the outbreak of the 2024 war have already surpassed $20 billion, while some indicators suggest the total could approach $25 billion. He stressed that the figure continues to rise as long as military operations persist.

The estimate marks a sharp increase from earlier assessments. The World Bank estimated direct damages at roughly $7 billion at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, covering destroyed homes, infrastructure, and damaged facilities. It also calculated indirect losses of between $5 billion and $7 billion resulting from weaker economic growth, declining business activity, lost investment opportunities, and reduced profits.

Jaber said those figures no longer reflect current realities after months of additional destruction and economic disruption. As a result, new assessments are being conducted jointly by Lebanon’s National Council for Scientific Research and the World Bank to document the latest damage.

The studies rely on satellite imagery and advanced technologies to convert field observations into detailed numerical estimates. Their cooperation with the World Bank is also expected to provide a higher degree of international credibility.

Official figures released by Shadi Abdallah, secretary-general of the National Council for Scientific Research, showed that approximately 61,056 housing units across Lebanon had been completely or partially damaged between March 2 and May 8, 2026.

However, officials acknowledge that the number has almost certainly increased since then as attacks have continued across various regions of the country.

The pace of destruction has accelerated significantly. The number of damaged housing units stood at 50,424 as of April 16, 2026, before rising by more than 10,000 units in less than a month.

Jaber argued that the economic impact cannot be measured solely through destroyed buildings. Southern Lebanon, which has borne the brunt of the fighting, accounts for nearly a quarter of the national economy, meaning the conflict has also dealt a severe blow to productive sectors including agriculture, trade, industry, and services.

He added that a substantial portion of the losses remains difficult to quantify. Missed profits, delayed investments, weaker consumer spending, and lost commercial and tourism seasons all form part of the growing economic toll.

The conflict has already affected the Eid al-Adha holiday period, while concerns are mounting over the upcoming summer season, which had been expected to provide a much-needed boost to economic activity and foreign currency inflows.

Jaber said his greatest concern centers on the post-war phase, when displaced residents begin returning home.

“The crisis will then move from temporary displacement to the far more difficult challenge of reconstruction and rebuilding economic and social life in the affected areas,” he said.

In preparation for that stage, Lebanese authorities are examining options to provide temporary housing and rapid solutions for families whose homes have been destroyed. The government is also maintaining contacts with international institutions and donor countries in an effort to secure reconstruction funding.

The minister acknowledged, however, that the task would be particularly challenging in a global environment that differs significantly from the one Lebanon faced during previous crises.

Foreign aid remains limited relative to the scale of the destruction. While Lebanon received approximately $700 million in assistance during 2024, along with dozens of aircraft carrying humanitarian supplies, available aid currently stands at only about $130 million.

At the same time, donor countries are grappling with economic difficulties of their own, limiting their ability to provide additional support.

Jaber noted that financial pressures extend beyond reconstruction costs. The burden of supporting displaced populations has already reached hundreds of millions of dollars, funded through a combination of donor assistance, government spending, and European financing aimed at addressing growing humanitarian and social needs.

Those costs are expected to increase further if the conflict continues.

Looking ahead, Jaber said Lebanon’s economy has historically demonstrated a capacity to recover relatively quickly following major crises. Nevertheless, he cautioned that the scale of the current destruction and the country’s fragile financial position make the path to recovery far more complex this time.

As a result, he said, the speed of Lebanon’s economic rebound will depend largely on how the war ends and whether substantial international financing can be secured to support reconstruction efforts.