Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has once again raised the issue of the Litani River in a speech, with Yedioth Ahronoth quoting him as saying that he wants to “annex Lebanese territory up to the Litani River,” as Israeli military operations continue in several areas of southern Lebanon.

The Litani River features in U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 as a geographic boundary for security arrangements inside Lebanese territory. The resolution also affirms Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders.

Retired Brig. Gen. Dr. Hisham Jaber told Asharq Al-Awsat that Israeli proposals involving reaching the Litani River or annexing parts of southern Lebanon “are not new in Israeli thinking or strategy.” However, he said their revival at this stage, particularly by Smotrich, is primarily part of a political effort to raise the ceiling of demands rather than a plan that can be implemented directly on the ground.

“The fact that this idea is being raised again today does not mean Israel is capable of repeating what happened in the Golan,” Jaber said, explaining that “what Smotrich said is primarily a political statement made by a politician, and it also appeals to the extremist camp and advocates of expansion inside Israel.”

He said demands extending as far as the Litani River could also be part of a negotiating strategy based on setting the bar as high as possible before moving to more limited demands.

“Israel asks for a lot so that the other side will accept less. This is a familiar negotiating method: it begins by putting forward something that cannot be accepted and then seeks to secure part of what it wants,” Jaber said.

Jaber said the key issue in the next phase was not the proposal to annex the south itself, but what Israel actually seeks to secure on the ground.

“These gains could be linked to the security and military reality in the border area, particularly after the extensive destruction carried out by Israel,” he said. Tel Aviv could seek to “impose new arrangements in the border area and establish a security reality that serves its interests, then use that reality as leverage in any negotiations with Lebanon.”

“Until Israel obtains something that Lebanon can agree to, it initially raises the ceiling of its demands and puts forward far more than it expects to ultimately obtain,” Jaber said. “Therefore, I believe that talk of reaching the Litani or annexing southern Lebanon is currently political rhetoric and an attempt to raise the ceiling of demands, rather than a project that can be directly implemented on the ground.”

He added that this should not downplay the seriousness of Israel’s actions on the ground, because the objective remains to secure gains from the reality it has created in the south.

“This is why we must distinguish between the maximalist positions expressed in Israeli political rhetoric and what Israel may actually seek to entrench or obtain in any future settlement or negotiations,” he said.

Retired Brig. Gen. Naji Malaeb offered a different assessment, linking Smotrich’s remarks to what he described as a shift in Israeli policy following the 2006 war. He said Israeli actions across several arenas suggested the speech had implications beyond a political statement.

Israeli policy “underwent a transformation following the 2006 war,” Malaeb told Asharq Al-Awsat, arguing that Israel had moved from a strategy based on “protecting its territory from within, relying on layers of air defenses and fighter jets,” to a concept centered on “defending Israel from outside its borders.”

“What we are seeing today cannot be considered merely statements by an extremist finance minister,” he said. “If this is Israeli policy, and if what we are seeing is being implemented on the ground in Gaza, the West Bank and Syria, then I believe what Bezalel Smotrich is saying is not simply an attempt to intimidate, but part of an Israeli strategy.”

Malaeb said Israel could initially seek to entrench its occupation of southern Lebanon, pointing to what he described as a precedent in the United States’ recognition, during President Donald Trump’s first term, of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

“For that reason, I would not rule out Trump endorsing a similar decision if Israel were to take one,” he said.

Malaeb said the risk extends beyond southern Lebanon, noting that Israel has linked its withdrawal from areas it occupies in the south to the disarmament of Hezbollah, a condition that puts Lebanon in an extremely difficult position.

“If Israel wants to secure its presence in the south, I believe it could work to cut the roads and corridors linking the western Bekaa to southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah forces or capabilities from moving toward the south,” he said.

“We could see sustained operations in the area stretching between Sajd, Rihan, Jezzine and the western Bekaa under the stated objective of preventing Hezbollah forces from advancing toward the south,” Malaeb said. “A military escalation in this direction cannot be ruled out, and it could perhaps take place before the Israeli elections.”