Israel is weighing a “calculated strike” against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israeli media reported, as security assessments question whether recent Lebanese steps comply with the terms of a ceasefire agreement and point to what officials describe as lingering Hezbollah military infrastructure on both sides of the Litani River.

Israeli outlets said the security establishment is preparing to brief Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the political leadership on its level of readiness, citing what they called the Lebanese state’s failure to complete the dismantling of Hezbollah’s military structure south and north of the Litani. The Maariv daily reported that Israeli estimates view Hezbollah as being in a phase of “operational weakness,” with a limited capacity to respond should Israel carry out a strike.

According to Maariv, security agencies are preparing a menu of military options designed to weaken Hezbollah without triggering a full collapse of the ceasefire arrangement. The reports come as Lebanon continues diplomatic outreach and as the Lebanese army takes measures aimed at preventing a renewed war.

The deliberations also unfold against a broader backdrop of regional tensions. Despite Netanyahu’s public efforts to reassure Tehran by saying Israel “does not plan to fight it,” reports have surfaced that the Israeli military is stepping up preparations for a potential surprise conflict on three fronts: Iran, Lebanon and the West Bank.

Israeli media said that opening fire on those fronts would amount to moving ahead with the implementation of a plan extending through 2023, involving what has been described as a “dramatic” expansion of Israeli military activity.

Israel’s Channel 12 said the plan, led by Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, is taking shape based on more than two years of wartime experience. At the same time, the army is raising readiness for the possibility of a broader war or the execution of a surprise military operation.

Iran has warned against what it described as U.S.-Israeli war planning, saying it would not stand idly by. 

Channel 12 reported that Israeli security assessments assume pressure from internal protests in Iran could push the leadership to attack Israel as a way to divert attention from domestic unrest. A senior Israeli source was quoted as saying: “We are monitoring a dramatic internal event in Iran, and it is still too early to determine its repercussions.”

Sources close to Netanyahu told Yedioth Ahronoth that he has held consultations and assessments regarding the protests, while his inner circle has refrained from direct public comment “for fear that any statements might prompt Tehran to take steps against Israel in an effort to contain the protests.”

The Channel 12 also said Zamir has identified two central pillars of the military’s multi-year plan: rehabilitating human resources and developing capabilities in the space domain. The Israeli military views outer space as a decisive arena for advancing defensive and offensive systems and for enhancing intelligence collection.

For the first time, the army is preparing for the possibility of conducting attacks in space, the channel said, including a future capability to target satellites and to strike ground targets from space. Shaping the multi-year plan, the report added, requires flexibility in operating mechanisms and incorporates scenarios involving threats from the “second and third circles,” including readiness for an additional confrontation with Iran.

Each potential front in the region has been assessed and mapped, with particular focus on Lebanon and the West Bank, and with an emphasis on adapting to shifting dynamics and evolving threats within the framework of the plan.