Israel, Lebanon’s army and Hezbollah are engaged in a rapidly intensifying security contest over positions that the United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon is preparing to vacate, according to exclusive information obtained by Erem News.

With the end of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) mission approaching, Israel is seeking to expand its control around some of the positions before the international troops withdraw, while the Lebanese army is working to ensure that the sites are handed over to it, according to a Lebanese security source.

Hezbollah, meanwhile, has launched political and field-level efforts to prevent any foreign force from replacing the international troops in the south.

The Lebanese security source said Israel’s recent movements in Mansouri and Khyiam, as well as along the Zawtar-Wadi Sluki-Deir Saryan axes, should be viewed in the context of the approaching end of UNIFIL’s mission.

Israel is “racing the withdrawal to alter the map on the ground,” the source said, seeking to expand what is known as the “yellow line” so that some positions expected to be transferred to the Lebanese state would effectively fall within or behind the area controlled by Israeli forces.

The aim, according to the source, is to establish a broader “negotiating belt” before post-UNIFIL arrangements are finalized, making it difficult to hand some positions directly to the Lebanese army without a prior understanding with Israel.

More Than Half of UNIFIL Sites in Areas Under Israeli Control

More than half of UNIFIL’s positions are currently located in areas controlled by Israeli forces, according to the source, making the transfer of some sites to the Lebanese army “very difficult.”

UNIFIL is already exchanging information with the Lebanese army on sensitive areas and how they should be handled once the international force withdraws, the source said.

Israeli forces are currently deployed at around 30 military positions in southern Lebanon, including eight fortified positions, according to the source. Three new fortified positions have also been established in Khiam, Maroun al-Ras and Mais al-Jabal.

The source said Israel’s presence had gradually expanded beyond the “yellow line” it defined unilaterally, through demolitions, bulldozing and road closures.

The contest is no longer primarily about the UNIFIL facilities themselves, the security source said, but about control of roads, high ground and access points.

Once an international position is evacuated, the presence of Israeli forces around it could be enough to prevent the Lebanese army from reaching the site, effectively turning the handover into a negotiating issue, the source said.

An incident in Deir Mimas offered an early indication of how such a scenario could unfold. An Israeli advance led to an encounter with a Lebanese army position before the situation was resolved through established coordination mechanisms.

The incident highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the boundaries of Israel’s area of deployment. A security source said at the time that the coordinates of the “yellow line” appeared to be “changing every day.”

Hezbollah Seeks to Block Foreign Replacement Force

Hezbollah is also moving to influence what happens to UNIFIL’s positions after the withdrawal, according to the security source.

The group has been conducting political contacts aimed at ensuring that the Lebanese army is the only party to take over positions vacated by UNIFIL, rather than a European or multinational force that could deploy in the south under new arrangements, the source said.

Hezbollah does not object to the Lebanese army taking over the sites because it is a Lebanese institution, according to the source. But it is highly sensitive to the prospect of foreign units being stationed at positions overlooking roads and routes used by the group, or the sites being connected to Western surveillance and monitoring systems.

Those concerns are linked to proposals being discussed for the post-UNIFIL period.

A European proposal would strengthen the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities of the Lebanese army and security forces, while also providing support for border and port security and training, according to the report.

France and Italy are separately working on arrangements that would differ from the current UNIFIL model.

Hezbollah Changes Routes North of Litani

Hezbollah’s preparations are not limited to political contacts, according to the source.

The group has begun changing some of its movement routes and methods for transporting and storing equipment north of the Litani River, anticipating the possible creation of new monitoring posts linked to the Lebanese army or to a force supporting it after UNIFIL’s departure.

The review includes routes that could be monitored from high ground and positions that could become exposed if modern surveillance equipment is deployed there, the source said.

The group is also seeking to reduce its reliance on fixed routes used in previous years.

The developments indicate that Hezbollah sees the post-UNIFIL period as a fundamental change in the intelligence environment in southern Lebanon, rather than simply the replacement of one group of international troops by another.

Israel's Control of High Ground

Military expert and retired Brig. Gen. Mounir Shehadeh told Erem News that Israel’s control of high ground was significant not simply because of its surveillance capabilities.

Israel already has drones, satellites and advanced reconnaissance systems, Shehadeh said. But control of territory allows Israel to turn its military advantage into a geographic reality on the ground and a bargaining tool in negotiations.

There is a fundamental distinction between being able to monitor and strike an area and actually controlling the territory, access routes and surrounding high ground, he said.

Control of the ground enables the establishment of surveillance and communications systems, restricts the movement of the other side and creates a security depth that aerial surveillance alone cannot provide, according to Shehadeh.

He added that expanding Israel’s deployment also creates a need to secure roads, flanks and observation points, making high ground and corridors central to any effort to establish a long-term security arrangement.

That is what makes the UNIFIL positions part of a broader contest rather than simply a question of transferring military facilities.

Ground Reality Outpaces Diplomacy

The UN Security Council resolution that last extended UNIFIL’s mandate calls for Israel to withdraw north of the Blue Line and for buffer zones to be removed, while Lebanese authorities deploy and extend state control.

But developments on the ground are moving faster than diplomatic arrangements, according to the report.

With UNIFIL’s mission nearing its end, Israel, the Lebanese army and Hezbollah are already preparing for the next phase.

Israel is seeking to reach UNIFIL positions indirectly by controlling the areas surrounding them. The Lebanese army wants to take over the sites as sovereign state positions, while Hezbollah is working to ensure that locations that have monitored southern Lebanon for decades do not become part of a new surveillance network capable of tracking its routes north of the Litani.