Israel began drawing up plans for a military strike on Iran as early as December, following a shift in regional dynamics that included the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and a significant weakening of Hezbollah’s capabilities, The New York Times reported.

These developments opened a clear air corridor for Israeli jets, removing a long-standing obstacle to reaching Iranian targets, the report noted. 

In February, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the White House and delivered a detailed briefing to President Donald Trump on Iran’s nuclear program. According to the report, Trump did not explicitly back or block the Israeli military plan. Instead, he opted for a middle course by authorizing undisclosed U.S. intelligence support to assist Israel, short of committing American forces or launching a joint operation.

By the end of last month, the report added, U.S. intelligence agencies concluded that Netanyahu was preparing to move ahead with a strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, potentially without any American involvement. The assessment, shared within senior U.S. circles, reflected growing concern that Israel was on the verge of acting alone.

Netanyahu has long maintained that Iran must be stopped before it reaches the threshold of building a nuclear weapon. For over a decade, he has warned that only a decisive military operation could prevent Tehran from acquiring the capability to rapidly assemble a bomb. Yet despite these alarms, he has consistently pulled back when faced with American resistance, particularly from presidents wary of dragging the U.S. into another Middle East conflict.

This time appears different. According to the U.S. intelligence community, Netanyahu was not merely considering a narrow, tactical strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He was planning a broader, more consequential operation that could pose a direct threat to the stability of the Iranian regime itself. And for the first time, he seemed prepared to move forward, even in the absence of American support.

The intelligence assessment posed a major challenge for President Trump, who had invested considerable political capital in a diplomatic initiative aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program. In April, Netanyahu made a direct appeal to Trump to back an Israeli-led strike. The effort failed. During a tense call in late May, Trump again cautioned Netanyahu against taking unilateral action that could derail fragile negotiations.

Despite those warnings, senior administration officials began to express doubt about their ability to hold Netanyahu back. According to individuals familiar with internal discussions, Trump’s advisers increasingly feared that events were slipping beyond their control. At the same time, frustration was mounting in the White House over the lack of progress with Tehran, fueling skepticism that diplomacy would yield results.