Intelligence Report: Iran’s Khamenei Could Flee to Moscow Amid Rising Unrest

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reportedly has a contingency plan to flee the country and seek refuge in Moscow if nationwide protests intensify and the security forces fail to suppress the unrest or begin to desert, according to an intelligence report shared with the British newspaper The Times.

The report says the 86-year-old leader would depart Tehran with a close circle of around 20 aides and family members, including his son and designated heir, Mojtaba Khamenei. Intelligence sources told The Times that the plan, dubbed “Plan B,” includes preparing assets, overseas properties, and cash to ensure a secure exit.

“The ‘plan B’ is for Khamenei and his very close circle of associates and family, including his son and nominated heir apparent, Mojtaba,” one source told the newspaper. “They have plotted an exit route out of Tehran should they feel the need to escape.”

The plan reportedly draws parallels to the escape of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who left Damascus for Moscow in December 2024 as opposition forces approached the capital. Former Israeli intelligence official Beni Sabti was cited in the report saying that Russia is seen as the only viable destination for Khamenei.

The report also cited a psychological profile of Khamenei conducted by a Western intelligence agency, which described him as “weaker, both mentally and physically” following the 12-day conflict with Israel in June. The assessment labeled the Supreme Leader “paranoid,” a trait that informed his contingency planning, but also emphasized his ideological drive and long-term strategic thinking.

“On one hand, he is very ideologically motivated, but on the other, he is pragmatic in what he sees: he sees tactical compromise for a long-term greater cause. He is a long-term thinker,” the profile said.

Preparations for the potential escape reportedly include securing access to Khamenei’s extensive network of assets, which a 2013 Reuters investigation estimated at around $95 billion. This network includes the Setad organization, one of Iran’s most powerful semi-state charitable foundations, whose finances are notoriously opaque.