Fragile Lebanon Ceasefire Holds — For Now

Washington is closely watching the state of the ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah after a weekend tit-for-tat briefly raised the specter of war reigniting on another one of Israel’s borders.

A Saturday rocket attack against Israeli positions broke a monthslong quiet in Lebanon, and, shocking nobody, the Israeli military responded with strikes of their own. The strikes killed seven people, per Lebanon’s health ministry.

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam — who was selected after the ceasefire deal broke a political impasse in Beirut — warned that his country was at risk of being drawn into a “new war,” as Israel threatened to continue responding to any attacks. Salam also reportedly urged the U.S., the United Nations and France to thwart imminent Israeli strikes on Beirut in private communications.

But so far, the ceasefire is still holding. Hezbollah has denied responsibility for the strikes and insisted it’s “committed to the truce.” Neither Israel nor Hezbollah has launched new attacks across the border since Saturday.

David Schenker, who served as assistant secretary of State for Near Eastern affairs during President Donald Trump’s first term, attributed this to the fact that both Israel and Lebanon are using the built-in mechanisms for deconfliction and triaging issues that arise. Additionally, Hezbollah hasn’t been able to fully recover from Israel’s military campaign last fall, leaving it significantly impaired.

“They can launch a few rockets here and there, but the strategic weapons, the ability to do organized cross-border infiltration attempts, I think these are very difficult for them at this point,” Schenker said. “Ever since the ceasefire in November, we’ve seen repeated consistent Israeli strikes on Hezbollah personnel and infrastructure in Lebanon all along, daily almost.”

Even when the deal was signed last November, questions raged about how exactly the ceasefire would be enforced and violations adjudicated. And it was expected that the Trump administration would have to do some management as Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon and the Lebanese army mobilized to fill the vacuum. Logjams and setbacks inevitably emerged.

Lebanon, of course, is also interconnected with many of the Trump administration’s other Middle East policy priorities. Israel’s renewed war effort in the Gaza Strip against Hamas is still dependent on an absence of pressure on Israel’s northern border from Hezbollah. Neutering Hezbollah, the crown jewel of Iran’s axis of resistance against the West, is seen as critical for curtailing Tehran’s regional influence and moving the needle toward a nuclear deal. And resolving Lebanon’s border disputes with Syria is also an important step for stabilizing the new government in Damascus.

White House National Security Council spokesperson James Hewitt told POLITICO in a statement that the Trump administration supports “Israel in its response to terrorists launching rockets into Israeli territory.”

“It is the Lebanese government’s responsibility to prevent terrorists from attacking Lebanon’s neighbors from Lebanese territory,” Hewitt continued. “These terrorists have ruined Lebanon for far too long, and we urge the Lebanese government to take the appropriate steps to take its country back. The United States will judge the Lebanese government based on how it responds to these terrorists.”