The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a severe global food price crisis within the next six to 12 months unless governments move quickly to contain the impact on global supply chains, energy markets and agricultural production.

In a podcast released by the Rome-based agency, FAO officials said the disruption in one of the world’s most strategic maritime chokepoints is no longer being viewed as a temporary shipping problem, but rather as the beginning of a broader systemic shock that could ripple across global agrifood systems.

David Laborde, director of the FAO’s Agrifood Economics and Policy Division, said the effects are already beginning to emerge and are expected to intensify gradually over the coming months.

“After three months, as expected, we start to see food prices increase a bit, and we are going to see this trend continuing,” Laborde said. “With a few months of delay, we will start to see food price inflation begin to kick in.”

He warned that without coordinated action in the short, medium and long term, the world could face a major food price crisis within a year.

“The solutions we discuss in the short run, medium run and long run are critical if we want to avoid dealing with a severe food price crisis six months or one year from now,” he added.

FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said governments and international institutions must urgently strengthen countries’ ability to absorb the shock and improve resilience against prolonged supply disruptions.

“The time has come to start seriously thinking about how to increase the absorption capacity of countries, how to increase their resilience to this choke, so that we can minimize the potential impacts,” Torero said.

He stressed that the response would require coordinated intervention by governments, international financial institutions, the private sector, United Nations agencies and research centers to help vulnerable countries cope with the crisis.

According to the FAO, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz disruption is expected to unfold in successive stages, beginning with rising energy costs, followed by fertilizer shortages, disruptions in seed supply, lower agricultural yields, increases in commodity prices and ultimately higher food inflation reaching consumers worldwide.

The agency noted that the warning signs are already visible. The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international food commodity prices, rose for a third consecutive month in April, driven largely by higher energy costs and disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East.

The organization warned that the window for preventive action is narrowing rapidly, saying decisions being made now by governments and farmers on fertilizer use, imports, financing and crop selection could determine whether the world slips into a full-scale food price crisis over the next year.

FAO officials said mitigating the impact would require the rapid development of alternative trade and shipping corridors bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, including routes through the eastern Arabian Peninsula, western Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea.

Laborde cautioned, however, that these alternatives have limited capacity, making it essential for major producing countries to avoid imposing export restrictions on energy, fertilizers and agricultural inputs.

Torero added that maintaining humanitarian food flows would be especially critical during the crisis.

The FAO also warned that the situation could deteriorate further with the expected arrival of El Niño weather conditions, which are forecast to disrupt rainfall and temperature patterns in several regions and increase the risk of droughts.

The agency outlined a broad package of policy recommendations aimed at limiting the impact of the crisis.

In the short term, the FAO called for rapidly securing alternative land and sea transport corridors, exempting food aid from trade restrictions, avoiding export bans, expanding targeted social protection programs and promoting emergency agricultural practices such as intercropping cereals and legumes to reduce dependence on nitrogen-based fertilizers.

The organization advised governments against broad subsidy programs, warning that they create major fiscal burdens and often fail to reach the most vulnerable populations. Instead, it recommended targeted support through digital registries capable of directing aid efficiently to poor rural households and small-scale farmers, particularly in Africa.

For the medium term, the FAO urged governments to avoid policies that increase biofuel demand during shortages, warning that greater competition between food and fuel markets could worsen the crisis.

It also recommended expanding affordable emergency credit for farmers and agribusinesses, strengthening digital payment systems, integrating informal farmers into cooperatives and producer groups, and increasing financial support for food and fertilizer imports through rapid-disbursement facilities and international financing mechanisms.

The agency further called for the reactivation of food shock financing programs launched during the 2022 global food crisis and for additional grants and emergency funding for debt-distressed countries.

Over the longer term, the FAO said governments should diversify global ports, trade corridors, storage facilities and logistics systems to reduce future dependence on strategic chokepoints.

It also called for stronger regional food reserves, more resilient transport infrastructure, wider use of renewable energy in irrigation and agriculture, expansion of electrified farming equipment and precision agriculture technologies, and increased investment in soil mapping and fertilizer-efficiency systems.

The agency additionally urged the creation of innovation funds to support the development of green ammonia, biostimulants, improved crop genetics and nutrient-efficiency technologies, warning that although such projects could take several years to mature, they would be essential for strengthening long-term food security resilience.

FAO officials said the Strait of Hormuz crisis underscores the growing vulnerability of global food systems to geopolitical conflicts, supply chain disruptions and climate-related shocks, warning that without swift international coordination, the economic and humanitarian consequences could become severe.