The coming period will be critical for Lebanon, as developments in the south and Hezbollah’s response to any war involving Iran could determine whether the country is drawn into a broader regional conflict, Annahar newspaper reported, citing diplomatic sources.

The sources say Israel may be waiting for Hezbollah to make a military move — or transfer explosives reportedly being monitored by Israeli drones — to launch a large-scale offensive against Lebanon.

Such an operation could extend beyond southern Lebanon to target Beirut’s southern suburbs and the capital, while Israeli forces could seek to occupy territory in the south as far as the Awali River, according to the sources.

Their warning comes amid growing fears that Hezbollah, acting under Iranian direction, could open the Lebanese front in support of Tehran if a confrontation erupts. According to information cited by the sources, the group has decided not to surrender its weapons and considers Lebanon ready to support Iran in the event of a regional war.

This position leaves Lebanon exposed to the risk of escalation, particularly as the dispute between Hezbollah and the Lebanese state over the group’s weapons remains unresolved. The investigation into an explosives shipment seized in Lebanon has added to tensions, with Hezbollah refusing to hand over wanted members as international pressure mounts on the authorities to act.

The United States, European countries and Arab states are reportedly insisting that Hezbollah’s weapons be removed entirely. Washington has warned Lebanon against failing to meet its disarmament commitments, while continuing to push for security arrangements with Israel through military talks.

Diplomatic efforts have so far failed to halt Israeli escalation, and the sources caution that even a limited Hezbollah move could provide the trigger for a much wider offensive. The situation in southern Lebanon, they say, will be closely tied to the course of any confrontation between Iran and its adversaries.