Every earthquake tremor recorded in Lebanon or the wider region can trigger a fresh wave of rumors and predictions on social media, turning natural concern into collective panic.

Among the claims circulating most widely are predictions by Dutch seismologist Frank Hoogerbeets, whose statements have sparked debate in Lebanon in recent months and led many people to question whether the country could be facing a major earthquake.

The issue, however, is not only the accuracy of such predictions but also the way they are circulated. General social media posts are sometimes taken out of context or reinterpreted after an earthquake occurs and presented as precise "predictions," contributing to fear and the spread of misleading information.

The renewed concern has also raised questions about whether recent seismic activity in Lebanon could be linked to Israeli military operations and massive explosions resulting from the destruction of Hezbollah tunnels.

Geology Professor, Dr. Tony Nemer, told Kataeb.org that the seismic activity was not a new phenomenon and had no connection to the military operations.

"This activity is very natural. It existed in the past and will continue," Nemer said, while noting that large explosions can pose a risk of triggering seismic activity, particularly in the period immediately following the blasts.

That risk does not disappear entirely, he said, but decreases over time.

Nemer said explosions targeting tunnels had not affected the Roum and Yammouneh faults. The 2024 explosion in Adaysseh, as well as more recent explosions at Beaufort Castle and Ali al-Taher, also did not affect the Roum Fault despite their proximity to it, he said.

The tremors felt after the explosions were immediate effects caused by the release of intense pressure during the blasts, Nemer explained.

"The waves were seismic and compressional and traveled in all directions," he said. "What people felt at the surface were those waves as they arrived, producing tremors that were subsequently recorded as earthquakes."

Western Bekaa tremors

Recent tremors in the western Bekaa have also attracted attention, but Nemer said they were normal given the area's proximity to several active fault systems.

"These tremors are very natural because of the area's proximity to the Yammouneh, Rashaya and Serghaya faults," he said. "Drawing attention to them only increases anxiety and does not change anything. Scientifically, we monitor them normally and do not attach particular significance to them."

The repeated circulation of earthquake predictions has nevertheless added another layer to public concern whenever seismic activity is recorded in Lebanon.

Hoogerbeets' predictions have been particularly prominent on social media, where posts can be rapidly reshared and later interpreted as having accurately forecast an earthquake, even when they did not provide a specific or scientifically established prediction.

The distinction is important because earthquakes cannot currently be predicted with the precision often implied by social media posts.

For Lebanese residents, the challenge therefore lies not only in dealing with the potential risk posed by earthquakes but also with the misinformation and alarm that can surround them.

Experts and authorities urge the public to rely on scientific sources and specialized institutions rather than treating social media platforms as reliable sources of earthquake forecasts.